sann0638
Joined: Aug 09, 2010
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 Posted:
Oct 25, 2019 - 16:58 |
 
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Hi,
is it possible from game data to pull together the win % based on whether you receive or kick, with a supplementary question of who won the toss?
Any ideas?
Ta,
Mike |
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Founder of SAWBBL, Wiltshire's BB League on Facebook and Discord |
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DrDeath
Joined: Mar 27, 2011
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Oct 25, 2019 - 17:57 |
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Just to add, I don't think the results would be very informative unless you break it down to race. I strongly suspect some sides are better receiving first (e.g. norse, who can hit hard but have low armour so want to get the initiative), others kicking (e.g. agility sides I suspect), but if you average it all out it will mask this finer detail. |
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ArrestedDevelopment
Joined: Sep 14, 2015
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Oct 25, 2019 - 18:04 |
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Would probably want to separate CRP data from post-CRP.
Chaos receiving first with 4 cpomb players is rather different on average from receiving first without for example, and that's merely an exaggerated data point. |
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bghandras
Joined: Feb 06, 2011
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Oct 25, 2019 - 18:04 |
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I am pretty sure that the result would NOT be balanced to 50%. Dont expect a huge, but statistically significant deviation from 50%. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Oct 25, 2019 - 19:47 |
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This would be interesting to document.
What would be fun to have for each race:
1) (kick/receive) first w%;
2) (win/lose) the coin toss w%;
3) win the coin toss, opt to (k/r) first %;
4) win the coin toss, opt to (k/r) first w%;
5) 1-4 above for overtime (expect mostly win toss = receive, but what's the w%?).
We might have to amalgamate the races for #5. Still, it would be interesting to see the win rate for coin-toss winners. |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Oct 25, 2019 - 20:08 |
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| sann0638 wrote: | Hi,
is it possible from game data to pull together the win % based on whether you receive or kick, with a supplementary question of who won the toss?
Any ideas?
Ta,
Mike |
The only way to track that would be if deep inside the match report there is a "field" that denotes who kicked/receive so you could sort that stack to win/loss.
So far above my FUMBBL pay grade on the answer to that and if you could even sort that data.
I only work here man. You want to know how the sausage is made you need to talk to my manager. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Oct 25, 2019 - 20:12 |
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NOW I will say this.
IF you receive the kick that is good if you can grind for 8 turns and punch in the score and make the other team score on a back to back scenario. OTS on T8 to finish the half and then grind you down in the second half for a t8 score and make you then OTS T8 in the second.
Taking the kick off ensures no matter what you get the last drive in the second half. |
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Verminardo
Joined: Sep 27, 2006
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Oct 25, 2019 - 20:36 |
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| DrDeath wrote: | | Just to add, I don't think the results would be very informative unless you break it down to race. |
^This. |
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sann0638
Joined: Aug 09, 2010
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Oct 25, 2019 - 20:46 |
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Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great! |
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NAF Ex-President
Founder of SAWBBL, Wiltshire's BB League on Facebook and Discord |
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harvestmouse
Joined: May 13, 2007
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Oct 25, 2019 - 22:27 |
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| sann0638 wrote: | | Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great! |
I'm not sure I've ever elected to kick. I can see the potential to in league. In practice though, I just can't see it as the logical choice. And I AM A WINNER!!! |
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mrt1212
Joined: Feb 26, 2013
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Oct 25, 2019 - 22:31 |
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| harvestmouse wrote: | | sann0638 wrote: | | Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great! |
I'm not sure I've ever elected to kick. I can see the potential to in league. In practice though, I just can't see it as the logical choice. And I AM A WINNER!!! |
The logic is simple:
1. Bad things that happen on offense are really bad
2. You have tools to extract the ball and score on defense
3. You have some nascent OTTD game and ability
4. You want to know exactly what is needed in the 2nd half out of your squad and can then play accordingly.
The logic for receiving is simple:
1. You have tools to depitch players
2. You have a solid ball carrier (ST4 Blodge)
3. You are shooting for OT after attrition
4. You want to conduct an 8 turn offensive drive |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Oct 25, 2019 - 22:39 |
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Logic is even simpler: if you bash, receive. If you are fragile AND can steal the ball, kick. Otherwise, receive. |
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MonkeyMan576
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Oct 26, 2019 - 00:26 |
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I thought it said give or receive. |
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harvestmouse
Joined: May 13, 2007
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Oct 26, 2019 - 00:55 |
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For me I see it very much like tennis (if you were only playing one game). You'd elect to serve or receive? I can see situations in a league where you 'could' receive (when things aren't even) but in practice I never would. |
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Strider84
Joined: Jun 03, 2009
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Oct 26, 2019 - 01:08 |
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I think looking at naf style games only without overtime, you should almost always kick. only exception maybe bash vs bash, but even there, there is rarely any proper bash team with more than 2 mb. maybe norse as they sre pure glass cannon.
also gives you the choice to play for the win or the tie.
i would expect the kicking team to have a significant advantage like 55 to 60%. |
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