spinball
Joined: Jul 01, 2004
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 Posted:
Dec 12, 2022 - 01:37 |
 
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stream is active, pregame for anyone interested. twitchtv emeraldblade81 |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Dec 12, 2022 - 04:18 |
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grant85
Joined: Dec 19, 2005
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Dec 12, 2022 - 04:36 |
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congrats! im more than happy to have lost to the champ. well played |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Dec 12, 2022 - 10:52 |
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Java
Joined: Jan 27, 2018
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Dec 12, 2022 - 11:22 |
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well done Nelphine! |
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Vlad Von Carstein's door-to-door evangelist |
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spelledaren
Joined: Mar 06, 2004
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Dec 12, 2022 - 11:38 |
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Way to go! |
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FUMBBL! |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Dec 13, 2022 - 02:47 |
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Congrats, Nelph! |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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Joost
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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Dec 13, 2022 - 09:37 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Dec 15, 2022 - 20:38 |
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The FUMBBL Cup is over and orcs are ascendent! But one of the most important stories of the tournament was star players: would they dominate the tournament? Would they fail? What information could we glean from so many matches? Well, I tracked them all in some detail and have discovered... something!
Let's start with a look at the stars themselves. Over the 105 played matches in the FC, 115 stars made an appearance. The most common star seen was, of course, Bomber Dribblesnot, who had an impressive 17-9 record (remember, no ties in the FC so that translates to 17 wins 9 losses), for a 65% win rate. This was the highest win rate of any star taken in the double digits. Morg was the second-most represented, with a perfectly symmetrical 12-12 record. Wilhelm came in third, going 2-9, and Helmut didn't fare much better at 2-8. Griff was 5-5 and Varag 2-5, but the biggest surprise was Zug, who was perfect at 4-0. The rest of the stars saw less than 4 appearances.
So, how likely was it that NO star would appear in a match? Not very! Only 21 matches (20%) had zero star appearances. If a star played only for one team, the team with the star won 31% of the time while the side with no star won 34% of the time. When both sides had stars the same number played for both sides 8% of the time, while the side with fewer stars won 5% of their matches and the side with more stars won only 2%.
While everyone knew that the star players would come out to play, overdog inducement spending (which during the tournament only gave piddling Prayers to Nuffle in return) was the other big question mark. Would overdog spending unbalance our beloved Blood Bowl? Apparently someone at GW thought it would, because they changed the way the inducement phase works in the most recent errata. But do the on-field results back that up?
The answer is... not really. The larger team spent treasury in 47 of the 105 matches, 45% of the time. Regardless of spending, the larger team won the match 52% of the time. When the larger team spent treasury they managed to increase that % to... a 55% win rate (26 wins). So being the larger team and spending treasury led to only a 3% increase in win rate compared to the normal win rate of larger teams (caveat: in an EXTREMELY small sample size).
Bomber Dribblesnot. It's a name that strikes fear into my heart after having to face him in my semifinal match! And, of course, he was the reason the larger team spent their own treasury 49% of the time. Did this lead to more wins, though? Of the 23 times Bomber was overdogged, he failed to show 7 of these, jilting both squads of that sweet 50k, which leaves 16 appearances for the larger team. In these, the Bomber team won 11 times, which is pretty great (69% win rate). When no one got Bomber the larger team only won 3 of 7 times, so not as good. Wizards were the second most popular overdog inducement. They were taken 10 times and had a well-balanced 50% win rate.
But what does it all MEAN? I am certain that I have no idea! And since we have new inducement phase rules we'll not see another tournament like this again. Still, it shows how much value star players have in 2020 that they were around for 80% of the matches, so at least in that prediction we were correct  However, having a star player on your team is not a recipe for an instant win, which matches with stats from the UI (thanks again astrolonim!) and from my league star stat tracking.
If anyone wants a copy of my spreadsheet, let me know - I'd be happy to pass it along. |
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Garion26
Joined: Nov 28, 2021
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Dec 15, 2022 - 22:28 |
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Thanks for the great tournament to watch all participants and organizers.
Thank you Wintergreen for the analysis very helpful
Curious would it be worth combining results from UI and FC XX to see if the larger sample size helps even out some oddities?
I'm curious if zug was mostly taken by a single coach who had a specific role for him on the team? |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Dec 15, 2022 - 23:14 |
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The answer to your question about Zug is that he only played for tussock’s Spoonless in the 4 matches leading up to the quarterfinals. I assume they didn’t have the treasury to induce him again against happygrue’s ogres so he didn’t play in their loss. |
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tussock
Joined: May 29, 2011
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Dec 16, 2022 - 00:59 |
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That is correct. Ran out of cash for Zug, and really missed him against grue. And yeah, block tree plus Zug was just a devastating foundation for the dorfs to get some hits off, free up the humans to do their magic. |
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