MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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 Posted:
Mar 28, 2023 - 12:04 |
 
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| SkittleMosaic wrote: |
Thus assistant coaches could pay for their TV in an Elf v Elf shootout where there's no potential bomber, you're rolling on the kickoff table 8+ times, and can better utilise late half rerolls for 1-2 turn TDs. |
Elf vs Elf games are not that high scoring, not in the Box, at least.
Maybe in a league encouraging high scoring, but most of times stalling is the common strategy. Stalling means low scoring, so, not many Kick-Off table rolls. |
Last edited by MattDakka on Mar 29, 2023; edited 1 time in total |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Mar 29, 2023 - 01:32 |
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It doesn't have to be high scoring, you just need both teams to have a credible chance to equalize, or perhaps a better shot at equalizing (or turning over for a fast score) than denying. That's why my formula treats fast teams, fast-ish teams, and TTM teams all the same. The reroll is worth it if it might matter.
I didn't factor for a shootout philosophy. The formula for N is 216 divided by the expected total number of meaningful drives, so if you think you and your opponents will try to run up the score, you should reduce N accordingly. This will improve the value of ACs. Though I'd still follow the rule that if the math favors 3 ACs over 2, you should fire them all and run 0. |
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Catalyst32
Joined: Jul 14, 2008
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Mar 29, 2023 - 06:23 |
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I always just thought it was a cheap way to gain a slight edge to have 1 AC and 1 Cheer since most coaches never took either.
In my experience I either WON or TIED most RR's and at worst denied my opponent an extra RR for a relatively low cost to my team.
Sure, sometimes I lost, 5's and 6's do tend to beat 1's and 2's, but I know I won more than I lost at least at about 2 to 1 and alot of my strategy is designed to force my opponent to roll dice and burn rerolls. Not letting them get back a few extra Rerolls seems to have a synergy with that.
It's something I started doing LATE during the 2016 days. Was it mathematically a better strategy then than it is now? Or did I just experience confirmation bias and maybe a bit of luck on those specific rolls. |
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spelledaren
Joined: Mar 06, 2004
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Mar 29, 2023 - 09:38 |
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It is fine to have that +1, the problem is the amount of games where either you don’t get 50k or give away 50k for bombers. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Mar 29, 2023 - 10:26 |
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Yea. a chance for the +/- 50k wasn't so significant because it just meant a Keg
Now, it is significant because it means Bomber or Cindy |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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Mar 29, 2023 - 12:25 |
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Let's make it simple.
Without A.Coach, the chance to win a rr is 41.66% (15/36).
With 1 A.Coach, the chance to win a rr is 58.33% (21/36).
Therefore 1 A.Coach means a 16.67% chance increase to win 1 rr compared to the chance without A.Coach, and this only if Brilliant Coaching event happens, which is 16.66% on the Kick-Table.
So, assuming a rr costing 50k, the A.Coach is worth, roughly, 1/36 of the rr cost, i.e. 1.38k (and this only if Brilliant Coaching event is rolled in a game).
The problem is that with Bomber and Cindy costing 50k you don't want to give to opponent free TV to buy them.
An A.Coach will increase the TV by 10 every game, but he won't be useful every game.
I'm not saying that winning a rr is not important, but is it so important to win a rr, maybe, when you are bloating your TV by 10 every game with the risk to face bombers?
Don't consider just the 10 TV of the A.Coach. You could have a player with a random skill not useful, such as Shadowing or Dauntless vs ST 3 team, bloating your TV already.
10 TV on its own is not a big bloat, but it's quite easy to have an overall bloat by 30-40, and that could make facing a bomber more likely. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Mar 30, 2023 - 03:10 |
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The path of chaos is just to hire 4 A coaches and 4 Cheerleaders and you will win 98% of the time those kick off results show up.
Now is 80TV worth it? up to you. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Mar 30, 2023 - 03:12 |
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| MattDakka wrote: | Let's make it simple...........
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Not saying that 99% of the post I just deleted is not valid.
I just have a issue with making it simple requires 7 paragraphs and a lot of stats.
Lets make it honest.
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Mar 30, 2023 - 03:17 |
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| Sp00keh wrote: | Yea. a chance for the +/- 50k wasn't so significant because it just meant a Keg
Now, it is significant because it means Bomber or Cindy |
I refuse to gimp my choices on team development on a idea that IF i do X then my foe could get Bomber.
Embrace the fear...sally forth with confidence and crush all before you.
OR
Gimp your team TV wise, because you recoil in fear of some stupid goblin with a sack of Bombs.
Choose wisely. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Mar 30, 2023 - 04:39 |
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| PainState wrote: | The path of chaos is just to hire 4 A coaches and 4 Cheerleaders and you will win 98% of the time those kick off results show up.
Now is 80TV worth it? up to you. |
4 Assistant coaches is 15+6+5+4+3 = 33/36, or 11/12, to win, plus another 2 to tie and deny the other coach the win; with no ACs, it's 15/36 (5/12) and 6 chances to tie. Figure Brilliant Coaching will come up about once per two games, and Cheering Fans is 5/6 that likely. So you're paying 80k to get half of half a re-roll counter (so an 8th of a TRR), plus 5/6 of that much (5/48 is a bit over 1/10) to get an average of 2 Prayers to Nuffle, meaning half an SPP opportunity. It's not worth it, sorry.
Exception: tournaments. even then you should cut it to 2 of each (or just 2 ACs if winning is all), but it's worth it. In tournaments, there are more potential chances of Brilliant Coaching and Cheering Fans, and there is also an increased value to Brilliant Coaching because second-half and overtime RR are more valuable, and because whole-match events might be 50% more likely to yield returns, if the game results in a regulation tie (in both cases). |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Mar 30, 2023 - 05:16 |
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Iam saying it is worth it..that is just me, I trust NUFFLE just enough for hiim To give me an edge. Now it comes down to how much faith do you have? Or are you going to shy away from NuFFLES blessings to min;max tv.
Only “you†can answer that question. |
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