MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 19:31 |
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To be accurate, Blitz! chance is 8.33 %, not 9%.
Rolling a 10 with 2D6 is 3/36 = 1/12 = 8.33%. |
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Primarch
Joined: Dec 14, 2003
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 20:35 |
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I never said I lose because of the dice, I just asked what the odds were for 3 blitzes in a row, lol. I also get that I deployed poorly, that is why I said I was trying to learn how to play them, obviously the combo of trying to learn, and rolling 3 blitzes in a row is a recipe for disaster. |
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 22:18 |
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_________________ To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac
Last edited by RDaneel on %b %18, %2024 - %23:%May; edited 1 time in total |
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 22:21 |
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the number of events of the kick off table is 11: 2 : get the ref, 3, time out et... 12 pitch invasion
so the probability that 1 of this event on a space of event = 11
probability of single occurrence is 1/11
(edit: this is wrong) |
_________________ To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac
Last edited by RDaneel on %b %18, %2024 - %23:%May; edited 1 time in total |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 22:35 |
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The probabilities of these 11 results are not all the same, because 2D6 are rolled:
the probability of rolling a 10 (Blitz! event) is 8.33%;
the probability of rolling a 2 (Get the Ref) is 2.77%;
the probability of rolling a 12 (Pitch Invasion) is 2.77%;
the probability of rolling a 7 (Brilliant Coaching) is 16.66%.
The probability of any event would be 1/11 if a D11 were rolled, but 2D6 are rolled, not a D11. |
Last edited by MattDakka on %b %18, %2024 - %22:%May; edited 1 time in total |
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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  Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 23:13 |
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mmmmmmmm too many vodka
with 2d6 the number of possibilities (space of events ) is 36
blitz can happen only if these rolls happen
5+5
4+6
6+4
so the possibility of a blitz! is 3(success) / 36 (number of possibilities)
8,3%
you were right |
_________________ To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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  Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 06:59 |
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Even better: on 2dX, the curve is a 45ยบ spike, with N-1 permutations (out of X^2) for every positive integer N up to X+1, then 1+2X-N permutations for integers above X. So on 2d6, it's 6 chances to roll a 7, 5 chances to roll a 6 or 8, 4 chances to roll a 5 or 9, etc. Blitz comes on a 10, thus 3 chances, but you can use this math for any kickoff result or any other 2d6 table, including AV and Injury.
Also useful in this game: if you're rolling 2 dice and angling for the right one, like on a 2d block, your chance of getting any given result N as your highest roll is (2N-1)/X^2, so 11/36 to get 6+ with a reroll or an open pow (if that's what you want), 9 chances that your highest roll will be a 5 (or a pow/push or whatever), 7 for the next, then 5, 3, and 1 for doubleskulls or snakes. Similarly, your chance of succeeding on two consecutive equal 1d6 rolls is 1/1, minus that chance, which is equal to N^2/X^2 (because the difference between two consecutive perfect squares is always the sum of the roots).
Also also useful is the 3d formula, which is (1+6T(N-1))/X^3. So for a 6, that's 1, plus six times the fifth triangle number, or 1 plus 6(1+2+3+4+5), or 91. So if you're throwing a 3d block and there are two good results, your success chance is 91+61 out of 216, or 152/216. If you don't like factoring out powers of 2 to reduce, you could do this on the individual dice: 2/6 becomes 1/3, so your chance of hitting that score is (1+6T(2))/3^3, or 19/27. The converse, the failure chance or the odds on 3 consecutive equal dice, are N^3/X^3 (and X^3 is 216 on 3d6, but of course it'd be 512 on a scatter).
This game is good for your arithmetic muscles, if you let it be. |
_________________ Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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  Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 11:41 |
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Or, if you don't want to bother with probability calculations, use this:
http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/
It's better to be able to calculate the odds with your own mind, but sometimes, in the heat of a match, it could not be easy. |
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Halfabrain
Joined: Jan 20, 2018
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  Posted:
Jul 13, 2024 - 22:57 |
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Primarch wrote: | I never said I lose because of the dice, I just asked what the odds were for 3 blitzes in a row, lol. I also get that I deployed poorly, that is why I said I was trying to learn how to play them, obviously the combo of trying to learn, and rolling 3 blitzes in a row is a recipe for disaster. |
You didn't deploy badly, if you roll blitz vs dark elves and the ball lands somewhere they can get to it then you're gonna get shafted no matter how you deploy. |
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Happy_Amateur
Joined: Jan 14, 2019
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  Posted:
Jul 14, 2024 - 07:25 |
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Carthage wrote: | Technically the odds that it happened to you is 100% since it happened |
This is the only statistical way of thinking that enables the self and the ego to survive the mental rigours of Blood Bowl vaguely intact. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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  Posted:
Jul 14, 2024 - 20:56 |
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You could just build your identity around being able to withstand ego-destroying awarenesses. |
_________________ Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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