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2022-08-17 13:08:10
16 votes, rating 5.1
16 votes, rating 5.1
Musings about Casualty table and Niggling Injuries effect on it
Some days ago a Chaos Dwarf of mine suffered his second Niggling Injury. I would have fired him on the spot, but, since he had Guard and Mighty Blow, I considered to keep him despite the 2 Niggling Injuries, so I made some calculations and discovered, with a bit of surprise, (it's not as evident until you actually calculate it) that few Niggling Injuries don't change the odds of Seriously Injured, Seriously Hurt and Lasting Injury, but they only affect the odds of Badly Hurt and Dead results (the two ends of the Casualty table):
Casualty Table
1-6: Badly Hurt 37.5%
7-9: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
10-12: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
13-14: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
15-16: Dead 12.5%
________________________________________________________
With 1 NI
1-5: Badly Hurt 31.25%
6-8: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
9-11: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
12-13: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
14-16: Dead 18.75%
________________________________________________________
With 2 NIs
1-4: Badly Hurt 25%
5-7: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
8-10: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
11-12: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
13-16: Dead 25%
________________________________________________________
With 3 NIs
1-3: Badly Hurt 18.75%
4-6: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
7-9: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
10-11: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
12-16: Dead 31.25%
________________________________________________________
Eventually I fired the double niggled Chaos Dwarf, because 25% Death chance is too high for me.
With 3 Niggling Injures the odds of Dead get higher than the Badly Hurt odds, so I think that with 3 Niggling Injuries you should fire the player. With 1 Niggling Injury you can keep them, with 2 Niggling Injuries you could as well (there are some factors to take into account, such as their durability, how many skills they have, Season games played and their role: for example, a one turner could be kept even if double or triple niggled).
I hope this will be useful when you have to decide about keeping or firing a Niggled player.
Casualty Table
1-6: Badly Hurt 37.5%
7-9: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
10-12: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
13-14: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
15-16: Dead 12.5%
________________________________________________________
With 1 NI
1-5: Badly Hurt 31.25%
6-8: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
9-11: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
12-13: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
14-16: Dead 18.75%
________________________________________________________
With 2 NIs
1-4: Badly Hurt 25%
5-7: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
8-10: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
11-12: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
13-16: Dead 25%
________________________________________________________
With 3 NIs
1-3: Badly Hurt 18.75%
4-6: Seriously Hurt (MNG) 18.75%
7-9: Seriously Injured (NI) 18.75%
10-11: Lasting Injury (-Stat) 12.5%
12-16: Dead 31.25%
________________________________________________________
Eventually I fired the double niggled Chaos Dwarf, because 25% Death chance is too high for me.
With 3 Niggling Injures the odds of Dead get higher than the Badly Hurt odds, so I think that with 3 Niggling Injuries you should fire the player. With 1 Niggling Injury you can keep them, with 2 Niggling Injuries you could as well (there are some factors to take into account, such as their durability, how many skills they have, Season games played and their role: for example, a one turner could be kept even if double or triple niggled).
I hope this will be useful when you have to decide about keeping or firing a Niggled player.
Comments
Posted by Malmir on 2022-08-17 13:44:21
Surely you may as well keep them with any number of niggles then until they actually do die as it makes no in game difference?
Posted by Rabe on 2022-08-17 13:47:27
Thanks for doing the math! :-)
I guess aside from fluff (rules) or exceptional players (who are hard to take down or well protected or both), it comes down to the question: How much does it hurt if that player misses more games than their potential replacement?
Sometimes the gamble is worth it, sometimes even the chance of that player sucking up MVP awards ist too much. Depends a lot on the circumstances, I think.
I guess aside from fluff (rules) or exceptional players (who are hard to take down or well protected or both), it comes down to the question: How much does it hurt if that player misses more games than their potential replacement?
Sometimes the gamble is worth it, sometimes even the chance of that player sucking up MVP awards ist too much. Depends a lot on the circumstances, I think.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-17 14:04:58
@Malmir: I think that you don't want to lose a very expensive player in-game because it could create a big TV gap in that match, putting you at a disadvantage. Also, if it's an important player, with many NIs the Apo will fail to heal him more likely.
@Rabe: cheers!
Yes, there are many factors and it's hard to list them all. I generally consider how much a player is worth in TV when I think about firing/keeping them and of course how much often they are blocked in a game.
I have a Legend Ghoul ball carrier with a NI, but most of times it doesn't make a difference because he's protected by a cage or just away from opponents.
In the case of Chaos Dwarf, which tends to suffer more hits during a game, I didn't want to keep him. He has AV 9 and Thick Skull but still he can be hit some times during a game, fouls are more effective now too, and losing a Chaos Dwarf with 2 skills would be a big TV loss during a match.
Moreover, MVP is random again now, so I didn't want him to steal MVP from not-Niggled players. I thought that the sooner I had replaced him, the sooner I would have built a new Chaos Dwarf. With Season Re-Draft, as an aside, it's possible trying to heal a NI, but the Seasons have not been implemented yet, so I fired him.
@Rabe: cheers!
Yes, there are many factors and it's hard to list them all. I generally consider how much a player is worth in TV when I think about firing/keeping them and of course how much often they are blocked in a game.
I have a Legend Ghoul ball carrier with a NI, but most of times it doesn't make a difference because he's protected by a cage or just away from opponents.
In the case of Chaos Dwarf, which tends to suffer more hits during a game, I didn't want to keep him. He has AV 9 and Thick Skull but still he can be hit some times during a game, fouls are more effective now too, and losing a Chaos Dwarf with 2 skills would be a big TV loss during a match.
Moreover, MVP is random again now, so I didn't want him to steal MVP from not-Niggled players. I thought that the sooner I had replaced him, the sooner I would have built a new Chaos Dwarf. With Season Re-Draft, as an aside, it's possible trying to heal a NI, but the Seasons have not been implemented yet, so I fired him.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-17 14:22:01
Just for nitpicking's sake: with 14 NIs (assuming a player survives so long) a player is automatically Dead if he's Injured.
With 13 NIs Lasting Injury is 6.25%, Death is 93.75%
So, with a lot of Niggling Injuries the odds of SI, SH and Lasting Injury actually change.
My first post was about a "realistic" number of NIs, i.e. 1-3.
With 13 NIs Lasting Injury is 6.25%, Death is 93.75%
So, with a lot of Niggling Injuries the odds of SI, SH and Lasting Injury actually change.
My first post was about a "realistic" number of NIs, i.e. 1-3.
Posted by Kondor on 2022-08-17 14:27:44
According to this niggles do not matter in game because no matter the outcome on the casualty chart they are out for the rest of the game. Am I missing something? Are they more likely to get injured at all? If not, a BH is just as bad as dead in the game. (Unless you choose to use the apo on a BH)
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-17 14:45:18
The Niggles are modifiers for the D16 roll you make on the Casualty table.
They don't increase the chance of rolling a 10+ with 2d6 on the Injury table, like in the old rules.
So, they are not more likely to be injured (on the 2d6 table), but they are more likely to suffer a Dead result on the D16 table and less likely to suffer a BH result.
And yes, Dead is worse than a BH because the Apo doesn't heal it automatically.
The Apo rerolls the result on the D16 table, so if your player is Niggled the Apo will fail more likely because the more Niggles your player has, the more likely the Dead result gets on the table.
They don't increase the chance of rolling a 10+ with 2d6 on the Injury table, like in the old rules.
So, they are not more likely to be injured (on the 2d6 table), but they are more likely to suffer a Dead result on the D16 table and less likely to suffer a BH result.
And yes, Dead is worse than a BH because the Apo doesn't heal it automatically.
The Apo rerolls the result on the D16 table, so if your player is Niggled the Apo will fail more likely because the more Niggles your player has, the more likely the Dead result gets on the table.
Posted by C0ddlefish on 2022-08-17 15:10:34
Minor point - not sure you can have more than 12 niggles realistically. Because after this point you can only roll Stat Busts and Dead.
I guess you could have redrafted them and healed two stat busts to make 14 niggles, but the chances of that and not healing any of the 12 existing niggles is extremely low.
Feels like a badge for Razmus
I guess you could have redrafted them and healed two stat busts to make 14 niggles, but the chances of that and not healing any of the 12 existing niggles is extremely low.
Feels like a badge for Razmus
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-17 15:19:30
C0ddlefish: right, didn't consider that. Anyway, even with 12 NIs the point stands, i.e. only with few NIs the odds of SI, SH and LI don't change.
With lots of them (which is very uncommon) they change.
With lots of them (which is very uncommon) they change.
Posted by razmus on 2022-08-17 15:50:32
Hmm... there's already a legacy badge which was carried forward for having a player with five niggles. That already feels like a... a lot.
Posted by Rabe on 2022-08-17 15:57:15
Didn't know about the new apo rules - learned something again. :-D
Posted by koadah on 2022-08-17 16:07:48
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?op=view&team_id=208
Posted by neilwat on 2022-08-17 22:40:56
I have started to not take apos, so can just collect those niggles as much as I can. I don’t see any point in firing a niggle player now due to this. Might be a rare player I would still sack for the reasons given above but it would be a rare case. I’m going to try no apos on other teams as well and will see how it goes.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-17 23:30:16
@neilwat: you can take an Apo on every team without using him on Niggled players if you want to collect Niggles.
;P
;P
Posted by PainState on 2022-08-17 23:52:16
so the choice is I kill him by firing him OR wait till he actually gets killed on the pitch.
MMMMMM
think about it.
MMMMMM
think about it.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-18 00:22:22
Easy: fire him before he gets killed on the pitch and makes your TV drop in-game.
Posted by JackassRampant on 2022-08-18 00:31:23
I thought this was obvious.
Posted by lautrehamon on 2022-08-18 02:07:13
The only downside of having a niggled player is you can't use apo as reliably on him, in case he's not badly hurt (which is also less likely). I don't know how often that happens and have a real impact in a game, not totally unusual but I don't think that it is so often it can justify firing a good player, especially with seasons making SPP harder to collect. So I think I'm gonna keep them till they die, and just make sure not to waste apo on them. You certainly have a point for firing rookies if you have the cash to change them though.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-18 12:59:32
There is another downside: he's more likely killed than BH when he suffers a CAS. You don't want to lose a player with many skills in-game so it's better to fire him before he dies in a match (with some exceptions as I said above).
Yes, if it's a Rookie and you have enough cash to replace him you should do it. Better not to get skills on a Niggled player.
Yes, if it's a Rookie and you have enough cash to replace him you should do it. Better not to get skills on a Niggled player.
Posted by ClayInfinity on 2022-08-18 15:56:49
MattDakka, I dont follow the logic for a skilled player like your G/MB Chorf? If he is injured, save for the BH apo roll, he is out for the game. To quote Ivan Drago, "if he dies, he dies".
Whilst you may want to fire him, you then need to come up with the cost to replace him (say 90k, not sure what a Chorf costs). Surely having a G/MB player is better for your chance of winning and then maybe using the 90k for a Bomber Star or the like? I dont see the dropping of the skilled guy for a rookie which saves you 40k TV means you're more or equally likely to win the next match. I would say having a G/MB player improves your winning chance even with the 40k TV boost?
Whilst you may want to fire him, you then need to come up with the cost to replace him (say 90k, not sure what a Chorf costs). Surely having a G/MB player is better for your chance of winning and then maybe using the 90k for a Bomber Star or the like? I dont see the dropping of the skilled guy for a rookie which saves you 40k TV means you're more or equally likely to win the next match. I would say having a G/MB player improves your winning chance even with the 40k TV boost?
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-18 18:41:54
The question is: when is he injured? If late in the match I agree that it's an acceptable loss, because late in the game he is supposed to have done his duty. If he's removed early in the game, though, the TV loss will have an impact on the rest of the game.
I don't know when he could be removed, but to be safe I didn't want to risk to lose such an expensive player so likely, with 25% Death chance and only 25% BH chance.
So, I just fired him and removed the problem, also, the sooner I replace him, the sooner I start to get SPPs on the new Chaos Dwarf. I don't want to get more skills on a 2-Niggled player.
Also, by dropping 40 TV my games are a bit easier. If I lacked Guards I would have kept him, but I didn't, so I fired him with no regrets.
I don't know when he could be removed, but to be safe I didn't want to risk to lose such an expensive player so likely, with 25% Death chance and only 25% BH chance.
So, I just fired him and removed the problem, also, the sooner I replace him, the sooner I start to get SPPs on the new Chaos Dwarf. I don't want to get more skills on a 2-Niggled player.
Also, by dropping 40 TV my games are a bit easier. If I lacked Guards I would have kept him, but I didn't, so I fired him with no regrets.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-18 18:42:41
A Rookie Chorf costs 70k, btw.
Posted by tussock on 2022-08-19 04:12:02
Niggles will heal in season redrafts, once they're in, will make a difference to all this.
With 3+ on Apo teams, and 4+ Regen teams, per niggle, you can just about ignore them on anyone worth keeping around.
Though, if you do get a player with 4 or 5, they really don't live long, 50%+ perm or dead, and the Apo just fails so much on them, just a matter of time.
With 3+ on Apo teams, and 4+ Regen teams, per niggle, you can just about ignore them on anyone worth keeping around.
Though, if you do get a player with 4 or 5, they really don't live long, 50%+ perm or dead, and the Apo just fails so much on them, just a matter of time.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-19 11:37:04
Indeed, with Season Re-Drafts it will be different. I mentioned Season games played as one of the factors.
If you have to play the last 2-3 games of the Season you could keep a double-niggled player with the hope to heal him.
If it's game 6 on 15-game Season then firing him gets more appealing.
If you have to play the last 2-3 games of the Season you could keep a double-niggled player with the hope to heal him.
If it's game 6 on 15-game Season then firing him gets more appealing.
Posted by Sp00keh on 2022-08-19 12:48:11
Interesting post and thanks for showing it
For niggled player then, firing is exactly equivalent to letting them die on the pitch?
Apart from the apoth will work less effectively, if you decide to use it…
Obviously for a niggled rookie, should replace if you have the gold
But otherwise… I don’t think I would do anything about niggles at all then, most of the time
Keeping a niggled player is instead an opportunity to gamble on Random skills, perhaps
For niggled player then, firing is exactly equivalent to letting them die on the pitch?
Apart from the apoth will work less effectively, if you decide to use it…
Obviously for a niggled rookie, should replace if you have the gold
But otherwise… I don’t think I would do anything about niggles at all then, most of the time
Keeping a niggled player is instead an opportunity to gamble on Random skills, perhaps
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-19 15:31:30
@Sp00keh: firing is not exactly equivalent to letting a player die on the pitch.
The advantage of firing before death on pitch is avoiding the sudden (and more likely, due to stacked NIs) loss of a big chunk of TV in-game.
If you fire a player between games your TV lowers and your next game is, in theory, vs a team of same TV.
If you don't fire a skilled player (assuming he has 2-3 skills) and he dies on pitch you will be at a disadvantage in that game.
You can protect him but, in my Chaos Dwarf's case, I don't want that a player supposed to be in the middle of a scrum has to be protected in a special way. I can protect him but that adds a variable I don't want to have on that kind of player.
The advantage of firing before death on pitch is avoiding the sudden (and more likely, due to stacked NIs) loss of a big chunk of TV in-game.
If you fire a player between games your TV lowers and your next game is, in theory, vs a team of same TV.
If you don't fire a skilled player (assuming he has 2-3 skills) and he dies on pitch you will be at a disadvantage in that game.
You can protect him but, in my Chaos Dwarf's case, I don't want that a player supposed to be in the middle of a scrum has to be protected in a special way. I can protect him but that adds a variable I don't want to have on that kind of player.
Posted by Sp00keh on 2022-08-19 17:04:31
I don’t understand why you’re saying that though
Either way, a player is getting an injury
It’ll be Badly Hurt at minimum
So, unless you use apoth, then you’re losing that player, that chunk of TV, regardless
Niggles don’t change that
They just de-value the use of the apoth
Either way, a player is getting an injury
It’ll be Badly Hurt at minimum
So, unless you use apoth, then you’re losing that player, that chunk of TV, regardless
Niggles don’t change that
They just de-value the use of the apoth
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-19 17:29:21
Niggles make the Dead result more likely and make Badly Hurt less likely.
So, they increase the chance of getting a result I'm not going to risk to use the Apo on.
If I want to use the Apo on a Niggled player he will be less effective.
I use the Apo in a competitive way, often on BH and KO players (maybe it's clearer).
I don't use the Apo to pixelhug as general approach (unless it's a very important player).
I use the Apo with the goal of getting the best achievable result in the match I'm playing.
So, they increase the chance of getting a result I'm not going to risk to use the Apo on.
If I want to use the Apo on a Niggled player he will be less effective.
I use the Apo in a competitive way, often on BH and KO players (maybe it's clearer).
I don't use the Apo to pixelhug as general approach (unless it's a very important player).
I use the Apo with the goal of getting the best achievable result in the match I'm playing.
Posted by Joost on 2022-08-20 20:54:51
Interesting, thanks for sharing Matt!
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-21 13:50:04
Cheers! Sometimes I don't write just whinings and complaints! XD
Posted by Panda_ on 2022-08-26 17:59:10
Thanks, this is inspiring. I wanted to give a different approch to apothicaries. This one is be _very_ complementary.
Posted by MattDakka on 2022-08-27 13:33:58
Cheers, glad to inspire you!
Posted by Panda_ on 2022-10-01 20:06:42
Note: I still need to pull my own analysis.
Posted by shukty on 2022-10-23 00:00:15
AmiciZIO per il sig. Boschi
Posted by PurpleChest on 2023-01-12 13:27:34
fantastic blog post, really interesting to see it in raw data, hadnt done the maths but had already started to adjust.
Posted by MattDakka on 2023-01-12 20:53:15
Thanks!