It has been a challenge this year to reprogram the predictatron… To my surprise, all regions had been shaken up quite a bit. I had to work on the piping of the machine to make it able to cope with all these changes. But, after some nights without sleep, we managed to get it working again!

How long, exactly, did you have to work nights without sleep on the reprogramming and piping?
..erm... I kinda lost count...?

Do you think your predictions still have any relevance by now?
erm... could you elaborate on that question, what do you mean?
(oh dear, where is this interview heading)

Well, considering the fast that spring is almost over, and summer is about to start, do you think the predictions still have some significance?
wait... you are telling me I was working night shifts all season long, and spring is almost over..? Oh my, in that case I first need to get some breakfast. Will be back in a sec. But to answer your question first: YES! The mighty PREDICTATRON is always relevant. Even after the tourneys are all over, it is still of value to know who actually SHOULD have won based on careful computations, and which other team STOLE the victory by cheating and foul play.

Predictatron says: Dark room delights have a chance to win the tourney by 48.3%. Graelings Garbagemen is a good runner-up with 27.6%. Good to see that the results in the tourney so far are backing up the claim of the predictatron, as these two teams are indeed leading the table so far. (Glances at the actual scoring table) Oh wow, the PREDICTATRON is actually quite accurate! Erm... I mean... Obviously, you can see now that these two teams indeed dominate the tournament, as expected. Only one match to go, to decide the winner of the tournament. It is clear who will win that one: Dark room delights. As predicted.

At first, this result was a big mystery to me… I double checked all computations, but it was true: L.A.D.S. will win this tourney. But how could it be that a bunch of snotlings beat all those super strong other teams in the league? To be able to understand the outcome of the computation a little bit better I asekd the predictatron another question…

Now, with the results of this question the previous one will finally be understood! The PREDICTATRON predicts that this year, finally, the CIBBL representatives will have been bribed persuaded enough. The scoring system will be altered! No more the plain old ‘three points for a win’ in this tourney. Instead, the more advanced S.N.O.T. counting system (Stomps + Numbers + Objects in flight + Touchdowns) will be implemented. In this system even Snotlings can score points. The current status of the tournaments scoring table (where L.A.D.S. are placed on 4th place) does not reflect the reality, as the S.N.O.T. system has not (yet) been implemented. But it will surely be by the end of the season.

Now, it is actually quite interesting to be able to compare predictions versus reality. So, in hindsight, it was all part of the plan for the computations to take this long. What you see in the PREDICTATRON results is that Modern's Midnight Meddlers (59%) will win the tournament by an astoundingly great margin. What you see in practice that Wraiths of Woe (10.3%) are currently leading the table, and can not be dethroned anymore. Now we can ask ourselves the question: How can it be that a team of only 10.3% winning chance is winning a tournament? The answer is plain and simple: It can not be. There must be some conspiracy going on. We only need to uncover it... Is there a form of fraud going on? Did the dryads secretly creep into the PREDICTATRON piping, and lowered their predicted chances, in order to fool the bookmakers and earn lots of money at betting?

Here we see again a very logical outcome, where reality nicely follows the PREDICTATRON. PREDICTATRON says: 44.8% winning chance for Templehof Wolves, and 31% winning chance for Misty Isle Gators. It is indeed these two teams that are fighting to win the competition. And it is these two teams that still have to play their decisive match. We, the true believers of PREDICTATRON, already know who will win it, right? Unless those dryads infested the machine piping also in this case...

This tournament is intriguing... It seems for one time in their life, the CIBBL tournament organizers tried to put equally powerful teams in one group, leading to a very balanced field. Several teams have a good shot at the win. It is in these cases where the PREDICTATRON really shines. No person or machine in the world could have predicted who will win, but PREDICTATRON does it: Harbingers of Gaia will win, with a 34.5% chance. Glancing at the current tournament table, we see that this team indeed leads the tournament with 12 points out of 5 games. There is a small chance that Aethyric Humours (24.1%) will still grab the title, if they win their final match against Venomous Orphans (20.7%).

For my whole career as PREDICTATRON programmer, I have been intrigued by the filler teams. These brave goblins or snotlings face whatever teams meet them, are active for as long as I remember, but never deserve the respect they are due. I must say, also in the PREDICTATRON history, the filler teams were never given any chance to win a tournament, and most of the time, are not even computed in the equations. One would think that they are all alike - But nothing could be less true! The CIBBL Filler 1 (44.8%) is clearly the top favourite, and will outperform the other filler teams by a great margin (max. 10.3%, so 4x worse). Sadly, we will never see this prediction proven in real life, as there is no competition among filler teams being organised or planned at this moment in time.

Simple question with simple answer. The Horned Legion of Arkhar (41.4%) will win this one. This competition has meanwhile already been finished. Guess who won? Horned Legion of Arkhar.

Even though this is one of the biggest competitions, with more participating teams, and also very strong teams, it is clear who will win this one: Matrons of Malice (51.7%). As predicted, they did not lose one match yet and are leading the competition so far. Now, these kind of predictions are a bit boring (=as the winner is already known from the start. To keep things interesting we came up with one more question...

This team of malevolent women has quite a reputation, you know. Summing up their whole career, they have so far inflicted 259 casualties in 72 matches. Will they be able to continue their conquest and rampaging path in the imperial dominion (1) competition? Yes, sure. That is not the interesting question. A more interesting question: How exactly are they continuing on their rampaging path of destruction? With how many bloody corpses in their wake? In other words: How many casualties will they inflict this season?

The PREDICTATRON has spoken, and the probability distribution of casualties can be described by these numbers:

Average # casualties = 29
Median # casualties = 21
Modulus # casualties = 21
Minimum # casualgies = 3
Maximum # casualties = 100 (was in fact the maximum possible number, so could be considered ' out of bounds')
Root-mean-square # casualties = 39
Standard deviation in the average = 26

So far, the ladies of death have inflicted 16 casualties in four matches. They have still two matches to play. So it is quite likely they will end up somewhere between the median and the average, well within one standard deviation.

An intriguing result!!! Almost unbelievable!! The PREDICTATRON still has full faith in DatMonsta's Everlasting Vultures of Settra (59%). But, judging from the results so far, their reign does not seem to be everlasting at all! The vultures currently hold the third place, with a 2/1/1 result. But, hold your breath: In fact, this competition has already been won by the Shield of Settra (3%). Wow! A team with only 3% winning chance stole the victory out of the hands of the big teams? This is a remarkable performance!! Even correcting the result for cheating, influencing calculations, bribing officials, and other lowly tactics, it remains to be an amazing performance for which we should all have the highest respect.

Long time favourite Nejaz Djinn (45%) continues to get full support from the calculations of the PREDICTATRON. It must be said that this year, the predictatron was a little bit less sure, and gave a small chance for Wolf Land Slavers (38%) to win the tourney as well. The tournament is a bout half-way by now and everything is still possible. The predictatron might still turn out to be correct. But, also here, likewise as in the Scorched Lands (1) competition, we see a remarkable performance of a mere 3% team: Badlands Headhunter Tribe (3%) is currently leading the table with a 2/1/1 record. Will they hold this position and join the uprising caused by Shield of Settra in Scorched Lands (1)?

This question was invented because it is a highly uncertain, but highly influencing parameter. We all know that if the Sheikh plays, Nejazz Djinn will win their matches. However, he is a bit of a spoilt ruler that every now and then gets bored of playing and withdraws with his harem. Sometimes even mid-match! So, in case Nejazz Djinn would NOT win the competition, we might find the answer as to WHY and HOW this can happen, by counting the number of turns that the Sheikh is actually playing blood bowl.

The results of the calculation can be summarised as follows:
Average # turns per match played = 7
Median # turns per match played = 8
Modulus # turns per match played = 8
Minimum # turns per match played = 1
Maximum # turns per match played = 16
Root-mean-square # turns per match played = 8
Standard deviation # turns per match played = 4,5

If we look at The Sheikh's performance so far, we see that he played 11 turns in his first match, and 0 turns in his second match. So his average is currently 5.5. Will he perform in the last two matches, and boost his average to the predicted 7-8 turns per match?

The Stirpoint Butchers (59%) are winning this tournament. Not hampered by the fact that they are in fact just ogres and snotlings, they outperform the other teams (in the prediction) by at least 2:1. And indeed, their record in the actual tournament is 3/0/0 so far. So, will the PREDICTATRON be right, in this tournament? No '3% uprising' in this third Scorched Land tournament? For this to happen the Nerekhara Scarabs (3%) would have to win the tournament, but this is unlikely to happen as the team did not manage to play so far due to malfunctioning CabalVision crystal ball connections. Fun fact: Also in this tournament, the current #1 and #2 (Dawn Dum Uzgul 17% and Stirpont Butchers 59%) are scheduled to play in the last round. A very well organised tournament, in which the top contenders meet last!!

The PREDICTATRON was. bit undecided about this one... several top contenders include Corpse Run Nightmares (28%), Karak Grimghal Boulderfists (21%), Deluge-Bearers (21%) and Black Water Angling Society (17%). And we now know WHY it was so difficult to predict this tournament: The teams were afraid of each other, moving across the globe to evade and avoid, going on leisure and holiday trips in turn. As a result, not many games have actually been played and most results are determined by chance. Still, PREDICTATRON knew this in advance (of course) and accounted for it. So chances are, the prediction will still come true. It will be an exciting end for sure, in which the last two rounds will determine all, and the two best performing teams (Deluge Bearers at 4/0/1 and Corpse Run Nightmares at 3/1/1) will meet in the last round (AGAIN! such an excellent tournament organisation!).

The PREDICTATRON was so very very sure. An astounding 76% (highest of all predictions!!) for Eye and Arrow. But the PREDICTATRON forgot to compute one variable. Apparently, the Eye and Arrow coach decided it was time to start building a new team. Lots of well known and well performing stars were put aside (Nephele, Elpida, and, last but not least, Eunomia the Mother of Souls) and new team building started. Had the PREDICTATRON known this, it would have predicted otherwise. We will give it an upgrade and account for this variable in future predictions. Having aid that, it is still a very good performance o Tiax Drifters (3%) who managed to take advantage of the chaos and win the competition, against all odds. Well done!

Most users of the PREDICTATRON service would like either door-to-door visits by goblin slaves (29%) or direct broadcasting to their crystal balls by CabalVision (29%). A smaller minority would like pigeon carriers or town criers (18% each). Only 6% is not interested in further communication. A good result! We will obtain a few more goblin slaves for next year's PREDICTATRON round, and feed them some of our carrier pigeons, to be perfectly in line with customer expectations. See you next year!