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Match Result · Ranked division
Match recorded on 2006-07-05 16:00:20
80k
2/1/0
Player Performances
td
comp
cas
int
mvp
spp
turns
pass
rush
block
foul
TOTALS
3
2
3
-
1
22
-
14
33
49
-
Player Performances
td
comp
cas
int
mvp
spp
turns
pass
rush
block
foul
TOTALS
2
4
2
-
1
19
-
11
19
41
-
“Luck reading is out due to a disconnect on turn 7 in the first half. Not sure if the replay file works or not.
----
WARNING WARNING WARNING
This match report may contain language that you find distasteful.
If you are easily offended, sensitive, have no sense of humour, or have had something tragic happen to yourself or a loved one then look away now in case you have a reaction to something in the report.
The following terms may or may not be used in the following match report:
Assault
Bad coaching
Bad luck
Bash
Block
Bloody
Crap
Crud
Death
Dice
Dice rape
Hit
Kill
Lucker
Lucky
Murder
Smash
Splatt
Unlucky
Useless
Whiner
Whining
------------------
Handicaps were:
I Am the Greatest
Bribe the Ref2
Iron Man
Extra Training
-------------------
Well what can I say. Overdose was tired and did not play his best game, he said so himself. Whilst I had some luck, there was also an opportunity to steal the ball when he brought it up towards my Str4 Player, and sure enough, I managed to get the ball and score.
The game crashed shortly after and on the reload, I just scored on Turn 8 instead of Turn 7 when I failed a GFI on the reload that I did not the first time round and OverDose could not be bothered reloading again.
Second half, the dice were very cruel... as per the 74-45 luck for the last 9 turns of the match.
First of all, he gets Perfect Defence which gives him an advantage...
On offence, I get ready to do my score attempt. Just need a hand off, then a 3+ pass and 2+ catch to score. I get Snakes on the hand off.
Opponent makes multiple GFIs etc and puts tackle zones all around the backfielders and makes a 3+ pick up.
Opposing player is Str4 but no Block or Dodge so it is 25% to knock him over on two dice he chooses. I block him 4 times but no joy (68.3% chance of knocking him down over 4x 2 dice blocks he chooses).
Next drive. Double skulls on a block, and then a 1 to pick up the ball. Again my opponent makes multiple GFI, a leap and pick up in TZ to get the ball. I try to set up a decent Blitz on him by sending my Witch back first, but fail my second 3+ Dodge after getting a 1 on the first dodge.
Anyways, more 1s on dodges for the next few turns.
Essentially, second half was a dice rape. First half I did have some luck, but my opponent also didn't play very well (he said so himself) to give me opportunities to try my luck a bit. My score was certainly lucky, with a 3+ dodge, 3+ pick up, and then 4+ dodge (and avoiding a 6+ intercept) to then make a 2+ Catch. Two easy 2+ dodges with Dodge RR and then 2 GFI as well heh. But this was well and truly dwarfed by the second half rolls as I conceded two TDs from this in a row instead of scoring at least one TD.
The second time I lost the ball thanks to Skulls and then a 1, I was not in a position to threaten a score yet so who knows what might have happened, but it was still a mountain of one sided dice rolls in the second half that really determined this.
Nevermind, I got a recovery game, and a 76 aging roll was made for the cost of 1 FF. GLT, here we come!
-------------
Addendum - response to Overdose re maths...
2 dice your choice... means I need either Pow, Dodge! or Skull Pow on both dice. 3 in 6 chance on one dice. To appear on both is (3x3)/(6x6) = 25%.
To not knock you over on block 1 = 75%. Not knock you over on second block = 75% x 75% or 9/16. To not knock you over on third and fourth blocks = .75^4 = 81/256 = 31.6%.
Chance to knock you over then was 68.4%.
I was a blitzed high school and uni math myself. Whilst no maths major, I am sure I got this bit of math right.
We can agree to disagree over the extent of the bad luck I had. Good luck in the future and see you again on the pitch sometime :)
--------------
Addendum 2!!! Friendly debating of probabilities of course!
If I am wrong, no biggie.
Ok, block 1.... 25% success 75% REROLL. Skull/Push is the same as Push/Push. A reroll required.
Looking back, my very first block was with Frenzy, so yes, there is a 41% chance of turnover. I had not accounted for the fact that I had no team RR for the first block. So my assumptions were wrong heh...
So final chance for Witch to get knock down was:
1/4+(44$ x 1/4)?
Or 36%?
Chance of not getting knockdown on blocks 3 or 4 either = 64% * 9/16
= 36%?
Is that right? If so, then instead of a 68.4% chance of failing to knock you over was 64%? Not a huge difference to me...
Lets leave it? My calculations were slightly wrong, but we both hold onto our views about the extent of the luck deciding this game :)
---------------
Addendum once more!
If I am wrong, I am happy to learn. No need to speak in a foreign language...
So please teach me. For the third block, for which I have a Team Reroll and thus can reroll 75% of failures, please team me how the .44^2 comes into it (and I will be happy to learn). Is it not 64% chance of not making either of the first two blocks times 25% chance of getting success or 16% for block 3? Please show me (without ridicule).
But even if that part is wrong, I guess we still have different views about the rest of the luck and we will have to live with our different views :)
-------------
The never ending match report...
Just watched the replay. I had a reroll for both the Witch and the AG5 guy.
Reroll was used on block one and then there was Frenzy... so it was 5 consecutive blocks, with rerolls available on blocks 1 and 4....
And block 3 was available only if I got a push + no skull on block 2.
Seems to me that I now have a higher chance than my initial 68% once I factor back in the reroll I DID have for block 1, and that frenzy gave me an additional block as well heh.
Block 1 = 25% success
Block 2 = 75% fail then 25% reroll success = 18.75
Block 3 is there if block 2 is a push + not skull? = 75%x 16/36x25% or 8.33%?
So Witch had 25+18.75 + 8.33% = 52.08% of knock down?
The the AG5 guy coming up next...
His first block to succeed (assuming all previous failures) = 48.92%x.25 = 12.23%
His second block to succeed (using reroll and assuming all previous failures) = 48.92%x.75x.25 = 9.17%
So chance of not getting a knockdown over the up to 5 blocks =
25 + 18.75 + 8.33 + 12.23 + 9.17? = 73.48%?
Am I right? I am wrong, please show me where (without ridicule). Anyways, be it 43% or 75% this was not the only factor in the game anyway.
---------
LOL after all that... my math was quite close after all...
Yes, I agree that there was no guarantee I would get the ball back, nor protect it. Just adding the information to remind myself how lopsided I thought the dice were considering I had the two turnovers from snake eyes and 1s, and then you proceed to leap, dodge, gfi, pick up with 3+ etc.
I am not bitter about the game or how you played.
I just felt IMO that the dice (and indeed after watching the replay like you said) was pretty much one sided in the second half.
Peace to you and good night.
”
----
WARNING WARNING WARNING
This match report may contain language that you find distasteful.
If you are easily offended, sensitive, have no sense of humour, or have had something tragic happen to yourself or a loved one then look away now in case you have a reaction to something in the report.
The following terms may or may not be used in the following match report:
Assault
Bad coaching
Bad luck
Bash
Block
Bloody
Crap
Crud
Death
Dice
Dice rape
Hit
Kill
Lucker
Lucky
Murder
Smash
Splatt
Unlucky
Useless
Whiner
Whining
------------------
Handicaps were:
I Am the Greatest
Bribe the Ref2
Iron Man
Extra Training
-------------------
Well what can I say. Overdose was tired and did not play his best game, he said so himself. Whilst I had some luck, there was also an opportunity to steal the ball when he brought it up towards my Str4 Player, and sure enough, I managed to get the ball and score.
The game crashed shortly after and on the reload, I just scored on Turn 8 instead of Turn 7 when I failed a GFI on the reload that I did not the first time round and OverDose could not be bothered reloading again.
Second half, the dice were very cruel... as per the 74-45 luck for the last 9 turns of the match.
First of all, he gets Perfect Defence which gives him an advantage...
On offence, I get ready to do my score attempt. Just need a hand off, then a 3+ pass and 2+ catch to score. I get Snakes on the hand off.
Opponent makes multiple GFIs etc and puts tackle zones all around the backfielders and makes a 3+ pick up.
Opposing player is Str4 but no Block or Dodge so it is 25% to knock him over on two dice he chooses. I block him 4 times but no joy (68.3% chance of knocking him down over 4x 2 dice blocks he chooses).
Next drive. Double skulls on a block, and then a 1 to pick up the ball. Again my opponent makes multiple GFI, a leap and pick up in TZ to get the ball. I try to set up a decent Blitz on him by sending my Witch back first, but fail my second 3+ Dodge after getting a 1 on the first dodge.
Anyways, more 1s on dodges for the next few turns.
Essentially, second half was a dice rape. First half I did have some luck, but my opponent also didn't play very well (he said so himself) to give me opportunities to try my luck a bit. My score was certainly lucky, with a 3+ dodge, 3+ pick up, and then 4+ dodge (and avoiding a 6+ intercept) to then make a 2+ Catch. Two easy 2+ dodges with Dodge RR and then 2 GFI as well heh. But this was well and truly dwarfed by the second half rolls as I conceded two TDs from this in a row instead of scoring at least one TD.
The second time I lost the ball thanks to Skulls and then a 1, I was not in a position to threaten a score yet so who knows what might have happened, but it was still a mountain of one sided dice rolls in the second half that really determined this.
Nevermind, I got a recovery game, and a 76 aging roll was made for the cost of 1 FF. GLT, here we come!
-------------
Addendum - response to Overdose re maths...
2 dice your choice... means I need either Pow, Dodge! or Skull Pow on both dice. 3 in 6 chance on one dice. To appear on both is (3x3)/(6x6) = 25%.
To not knock you over on block 1 = 75%. Not knock you over on second block = 75% x 75% or 9/16. To not knock you over on third and fourth blocks = .75^4 = 81/256 = 31.6%.
Chance to knock you over then was 68.4%.
I was a blitzed high school and uni math myself. Whilst no maths major, I am sure I got this bit of math right.
We can agree to disagree over the extent of the bad luck I had. Good luck in the future and see you again on the pitch sometime :)
--------------
Addendum 2!!! Friendly debating of probabilities of course!
If I am wrong, no biggie.
Ok, block 1.... 25% success 75% REROLL. Skull/Push is the same as Push/Push. A reroll required.
Looking back, my very first block was with Frenzy, so yes, there is a 41% chance of turnover. I had not accounted for the fact that I had no team RR for the first block. So my assumptions were wrong heh...
So final chance for Witch to get knock down was:
1/4+(44$ x 1/4)?
Or 36%?
Chance of not getting knockdown on blocks 3 or 4 either = 64% * 9/16
= 36%?
Is that right? If so, then instead of a 68.4% chance of failing to knock you over was 64%? Not a huge difference to me...
Lets leave it? My calculations were slightly wrong, but we both hold onto our views about the extent of the luck deciding this game :)
---------------
Addendum once more!
If I am wrong, I am happy to learn. No need to speak in a foreign language...
So please teach me. For the third block, for which I have a Team Reroll and thus can reroll 75% of failures, please team me how the .44^2 comes into it (and I will be happy to learn). Is it not 64% chance of not making either of the first two blocks times 25% chance of getting success or 16% for block 3? Please show me (without ridicule).
But even if that part is wrong, I guess we still have different views about the rest of the luck and we will have to live with our different views :)
-------------
The never ending match report...
Just watched the replay. I had a reroll for both the Witch and the AG5 guy.
Reroll was used on block one and then there was Frenzy... so it was 5 consecutive blocks, with rerolls available on blocks 1 and 4....
And block 3 was available only if I got a push + no skull on block 2.
Seems to me that I now have a higher chance than my initial 68% once I factor back in the reroll I DID have for block 1, and that frenzy gave me an additional block as well heh.
Block 1 = 25% success
Block 2 = 75% fail then 25% reroll success = 18.75
Block 3 is there if block 2 is a push + not skull? = 75%x 16/36x25% or 8.33%?
So Witch had 25+18.75 + 8.33% = 52.08% of knock down?
The the AG5 guy coming up next...
His first block to succeed (assuming all previous failures) = 48.92%x.25 = 12.23%
His second block to succeed (using reroll and assuming all previous failures) = 48.92%x.75x.25 = 9.17%
So chance of not getting a knockdown over the up to 5 blocks =
25 + 18.75 + 8.33 + 12.23 + 9.17? = 73.48%?
Am I right? I am wrong, please show me where (without ridicule). Anyways, be it 43% or 75% this was not the only factor in the game anyway.
---------
LOL after all that... my math was quite close after all...
Yes, I agree that there was no guarantee I would get the ball back, nor protect it. Just adding the information to remind myself how lopsided I thought the dice were considering I had the two turnovers from snake eyes and 1s, and then you proceed to leap, dodge, gfi, pick up with 3+ etc.
I am not bitter about the game or how you played.
I just felt IMO that the dice (and indeed after watching the replay like you said) was pretty much one sided in the second half.
Peace to you and good night.
”
This was not a dicerape, although I must agree that he had really bad luck in his second half.
Always a pleasure to play against Malthor, I just think that this time his report is a bit off.
And Malthor, you're propability calculations are wrong. The chances to knock my ST 4 dude are much worse since a single skull in your block dice is a turnover. Believe me I'm a math major : P
----------------------------
Addendum - response to Malthors response
2 dice my choice, means that if you roll a single skull I will choose it and it's a turnover for you, to dodge a skull in a 2 d block is (5/6)^2 = 0,69, so there is a 31 % chance of a turnover.
So. First block: 31 % of the time you get a turnover. 25 % of the time you knock my player down, and (100 % - 25 % - 31 %) 44 % of the time you get a second chance....
Do you see now how your math is crooked?
---------------------------
we won't leave it since you are wrong yet again.
Your chance to get a pow in your fourth block is 0,44^3 (since you got to dodge skulls and the 25 % chance of succeeding in your previous blocks) x 0,25 = 2,1 %... See?
Your chance to get a pow in your third block is 0,44^2 x 0,25 = 4,8 %...
Your chance to get a pow in your second block is 0,44 x 0,25 = 11 %
And your chance to get him knocked over in your very first block is the infamous 1/4 aka 25 %
So, your overall chance to knock him down is 25+11+4,8+2,1 = 42,9 %
These calculations are made in a scenario where you do not have a reroll!
------------------------------------------------
My previous calculations were for a scenario in which you block him 4 times with no rerolls in ONE turn. Since I didn't remember it correctly (I didn't watch all of your turns when we played) I made my calculations (which were correct) for a wrong scenario. So let's look at the correct math.
Okay, I refreshed my memory and watched the replay. The first blitz was with a witch. In that particular turn your first block was a 0.75 (no success here) you had a reroll and you used it. (now it's 0,75x0,75=0,5625 the chance to stay up in this particular situation). So, you're odds of knocking him down was 0,4375.
Now comes the tricky part: the frenzy follow up block. Your chances of getting a turnover in this particular situation is 0,75 x 0,31 = 0,2325.
So, 23,25 % of the time your turn ends in a turnover. That leaves us 56,25-23,25 = 33 % percent chance of a frenzy follow up block. To knock him down in that block the odds are 25 % so the overall chance of you to knock him down on that second block is 0,33 x 0,25 = 8,25 %.
So in that particular turn your odds for knocking the ball carrier over was 43,75 % + 8,25 % = 52 %.
In the next turn your odds to knock him down were a bit less since you didn't have that 8,25 % bonus. So it was 43,75 % chance to knock him down on that particular turn.
So if you want to add these odds up (which is stupid imo since they were on different turns and thus in different situations and more importantly they were not consecutive blocks) your chances of knocking my player down on either of these turns were 52 % + (0,48 x 0,4375 = 0,21) 21 % = 73 %.
So I got very lucky to not get knocked down if you want to calculate the odds this way (we are not calculating the previous actions, dodges, gfis and such, and sometimes they will change the odds drastically, but it isn't the case in this situation. Even though in your second blitz you dodged 3+ and gfid 2+ before the blitz dice).
And if you watch the replay, even if you would have knocked him down, it wouldn't been certain that a) you would've picked it up b) got it in to a safe location. But that's a completely different story...
SUMMA SUMMARUM (my last note for this match): calculating odds for *something to happen* is fun and it certainly can and will give you the edge in a game like this. But these results aren't implicite and you mustn't think of these results as exact luckiness or unluckiness, since every die you roll affects the turn and the game somehow.”