“This game is an example of how a single die roll can break a drive, and a series of die rolls can break the game. Below are all the stats for the first half, but I will summarize here.

The elves got a lucky 1/8 bounce on turn 2; the next 2 bounces while the Creepers tried to get the ball back both went the elves way (but at that point, that wasn't entirely unexpected since the elves covered the ball well from turn 3 onward). The elves also never failed a ball roll despite making 11 of them, and the expected number of fails from those 11 rolls was 2 (most of the rolls were 8/9 success or better, so not terribly unlikely).

From here Tortured Creepers tried to play the bash game to have enough of a numbers advantage to score twice in the second half. Assuming only one set of KO rolls due to the elven ball rolls, with the blocks and fouls done during the first half, the elves should have been down 4.6 players at the start of the first half, while the Creepers could expect to have 2 zombies banned and 0.6 players removed by the elves; instead they had 3 zombies banned, which was reasonable. However, the Creepers only removed 1 player, not 4 or 5, and this prevented them from swarming the elves to win the match.

The elves did finally fail a ball roll in the second half, on another long toss; despite -2 die blocking Black One and downing him several times, the elves couldn't manage to keep the Creepers out of scoring range, and the wight successfully handed off to the only zombie within scoring distance on the last turn to draw the match.

I found frampou to be a good opponent; he was aware he had luck, but he made the most of it, and chatted amicably, although the language barrier (neither of us are fluent speakers of the others native language) made it a little slow. He didn't have any problems with my playstyle of trying to wipe his team, nor the final turns luck when a wight picked up the ball in the rain (after a missed throw by an elf) and a zombie got the hand off to score.





First Half Die Rolls:
Creepers:
2 die, 3/6 per die of knockdown, knockdown with mb, no armour break
3 die, 2/6 per die of knockdown, push with mb
3 die, 2/6 per die of knockdown, push with mb
2 die, 1/6 per die of knockdown, push with mb
3 die, 2/6 knockdown, stun with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, stun with mb
2 die, 1/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push with mb
1 die, 2/6 knockdown, fail trr, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push with mb
Murk 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, fail no armour break (either side)
3 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, stun with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
1 die, 3/6 knockdown, push
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with trr and mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, stun with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push with mb
2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
3 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb

(expected: 12.2 knockdowns with mb 2.3 knockdowns without mb = 2107/1296 kos and 1770/1296 cas)

foul vs av 7 w/ dirty player, no armour break
foul vs av 6 w/ dirty player, stun
foul vs av 6 w/ dirty player, stun, bribe prevents ban
foul vs av 5 w/ dirty player, cas
foul vs av 4 w/ dirty player, stun, Murk Banned
foul vs av 6 w/ dirty player, stun, Dusk Banned
foul vs av 5 w/ dirty player, stun, Dark Banned
foul vs av 5 w/ dirty player, stun

(expected: 3 bans but 1 saved from bribe. distinctly more than expected, but within reasonable limits considering the team)

(expected damage in first half: 4261/1296 kos and 3720/1296 cas. since half the ko's would then wake up = 4.5 players out after half time; since we only had ONE elf out after half time, this was an incredibly bad first half)

non ball checks:
5/6 gfi, pass; 5/6 gfi, pass 5/6 gfi, pass; 5/6 gfi, pass 5/6 gfi, pass 5/6 gfi, pass 5/6 gfi, pass;

(expected: 7 successes, and 1 trr used up. slightly above expected since no trr used)

ball checks:
4+ pick up, fail
(was very first turn, and in a reasonably safe location, although the following turn showed that to be very poor judgement)

la terre de mileux
block Dismal, 2 die, 3/6 for knockdown, knockdown
block Dismal, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, knockdown
block The Rain, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, knockdown with mb
block Predelge, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown
block Dark, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, push
block Dismal, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push
block The Rain, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, push with mb
block Dark, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, knockdown with trr
block The Rain, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, stun
block Rage, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, knockdown
block Black One, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push with mb
block Rage, 2 die, 3/6 knockdown, knockdown
block The Rain, 1 die, 3/6 knockdown, KO with mb
block Black One, 2 die, 2/6 knockdown, push

(expected: 0.27 ko'd players and 0.39 cas-ed players to start the second half)

Non ball rolls, turns seperated by semi-colons:

5/6 gfi, fail, pass with trr
35/36 dodge, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass;
35/36 dodge, pass
35/36 dodge, fail, knockdown;
this turn also had 7 of the ball rolls below in it for a total of 17 successful actions without any team re-rolls needed by the elves
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
5/6 dodge, pass
8/9 dodge, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
2/3 dodge, pass
2/3 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass;
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, fail, trr, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass;
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass;
5/6 gfi, pass
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
5/6 gfi, fail, knockdown;
5/6 dodge, pass
2/3 dodge, pass
5/6 dodge, pass;

(I haven't worked out the expected value of the non ball actions, since by definition they are not as important to the game, and failing them, in most cases, would not have been a huge problem for the elves, unless they had managed to remove their own players)

ball rolls:

1/8 bounce, pass
18/36 catch, pass;
1/2 bounce, pass
12/36 catch, pass;
5/8 bounce, pass
35/36 dodge, pass
30/36 dodge, pass
32/36 pickup, pass
30/36 dodge, pass
35/36 pass, pass
32/36 catch, pass;
30/36 catch, pass;
35/36 pass, pass
32/36 catch, pass;

(expected: 32+35+30+32+35+30+32+30+35+12+18 = 321/36 success or, 2 failures)
”