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Reddit Cup III: Semi-Finals

Definitely a tough match-up on paper for the Humans, but they put up a good fight. We went after Morg right away with a piling on attempt which didn't take him out. A blatant foul card was played to perfection to KO our killer, that could have gone much worse.

Soon thereafter the Humans attempted a fireball which could have easily broken our cage and potentially been disastrous, but the wizard only knocked down one player. We managed to score relatively easily.

We setup for a strong one turn TD defence but with a perfect defence KO roll we decided to play it safe and back-off our players. This turned out to be a mistake, as Johnny executed a very good OTT attempt, which I initially didn't see as being feasible. He managed to get his catcher in range but missed the ball pick-up. Either way, it was a long-shot.

We defended the second half well but the Humans managed a miracle TD in danger... Requiring a dodge from tentacles (2 str vs. 5 str, 42% success probability), a pick-up, a 5+ pass, no interception, and a catch in the end zone. I calculate it to be about a 5% chance of success, but they did not have any other options, really.

Tentacle dodge = 0.42
Dodge itself = 0.89 (3+ auto RR)
Ball-pick-up = 0.67
Pass = 0.33
Not intercepted = 0.83
Caught = 0.67

Total Prob = 0.046. So, the mostly useless wizard and the miracle TD somewhat offset.

We still had plenty of time with the ball and managed to march down the field. We were unable to fully cover up at times, allowing blocks vs our ball-carrier. Eventually, he was knocked down but we managed to recover the ball on a nice bounce, securing it, and eventually pushing for the TD.

This time, we made sure to setup to defend the OTT. Johnny was close yet again, but was one square shy of the necessary chain pushes, resulting in our 2-1 victory.”