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2024-01-01 07:34:29
8 votes, rating 5.4
8 votes, rating 5.4
POTY 2024 Predictions Summary
0 vote shocker: Storr. Genuinely top drawer coach, who somehow didn’t even garner his own vote. I hope you all join me in wishing him well with his cRRRack addiction in 2024.
1: 10 coaches (see below for full list). Some big names that I was expecting to appear, but a special shoutout to Bazakastine who would be my pick to top this pool despite providing his only vote himself. Perhaps memories are short and it’s been a minute since he was active. Serious threat.
2: Tussock and Ignaz both found favour with multiple predictors to edge out from the chasing pack.
5: happygrue - I suspect this number jumps substantially with a 4th prediction slot. Was painful to leave off my list.
11: Spence – Who better to predict winning a year long bb2020 meta comp than someone who claims bb2020 is the worst ruleset we’ve ever had?
14: Malmir – I wavered on this pick as I’ve got the impression Malmir is also less than thrilled by NewBB. However, you don’t have to like a ruleset to excel in it (at least I hope that’s true) and Malmir has been so dominant on FUMBBL historically that he becomes very hard to overlook here and ultimately I gave him the nod over grue.
16: Elyod. A massive 80% of predictions included Elyod. While some of us were whining about blood bowl being on fire Elyod simply got on with things, arguably adjusting and exploiting the deficiencies in the ruleset faster than anyone else, to become (imo) the dominant online player in bb2020. This approach should be applauded and emulated. The question is: Will he be able to maintain this dominance with a pack of trophy-hungry hyenas on his tail?
So there are 4 clear favourites going by these predictions, but I think the race is much more open than that in reality. Would you bet against say… fxiii crushing several majors in a row? Or Storr cleaning up if he gets clean? The return of Gdaynick would shake things up.
Beyond the people who already play on the superior client there are a number of heavy hitters who could potentially make the switch from BB3 in frustration with the clown show. For example ArtemisBlack would almost certainly excel in the BBT format and Crucifer would immediately become a serious POTY threat.
There are also TT heroes who already play FUMBBL and could put in a big year (attracted by lower average TV in majors and the 15 game spin pool partition in box), chief among them the literal giant KFoged.
I’m excited to see who breaks out into an early lead with Jan Gauntlet, Warpstone Open and the first Minor.
The poll results echoing my own gut instinct on the four favourites is a little troubling, however. I get nervous when my initial guess at something reflects the majority opinion as the wisdom of crowds is notoriously terrible. When most people agree with you, you’re probably wrong. A world in which Elyod, Malmir, me, and grue all end up in the pit at the end of the year looking up at 3 other people on the podium is not that difficult to imagine.
20 entries.
Number of Top 3 predictions. Bracketed numbers show predictions for 1st place.
16: Elyod (6)
14: Malmir (6)
11: Spence (5)
5: happygrue (1)
2: Tussock (1), Ignaz
1: Bazakastine (1), Jan-Erik, wintergreen13, fxiii, Candlejack, dementor42, SideshowBob, Naama, Nelphine, RickWreckless
Full Selection List
Spence (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Storr (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Christer (Malmir, Tussock, Elyod)
Elyod (Elyod, Malmir, Spence)
Java (Elyod, Malmir, Ignaz)
JimmyFantastic (Elyod, Spence, Malmir)
BrainOfJosh (Spence, Jan-Erik, Elyod)
happygrue (happygrue, Malmir, Elyod)
Bazakastine (Bazakastine, happygrue, wintergreen13)
SideshowBob (Malmir, Elyod, happygrue)
ben_awesome (Malmir, fxiii, Candlejack)
DimmyGee (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Malmir (Malmir, Spence, Elyod)
ArrestedDevelopment (Malmir, happygrue, Spence)
Rawlf (Elyod, Malmir, dementor42)
Dynamix (Elyod, SideshowBob, Spence)
BaronBucky (Tussock, Naama, Nelphine)
dementor42 (Malmir, Elyod, Ignaz)
HimalayaP1C7 (Spence, Elyod, happygrue)
RickWreckless (Elyod, Spence, RickWreckless)
1: 10 coaches (see below for full list). Some big names that I was expecting to appear, but a special shoutout to Bazakastine who would be my pick to top this pool despite providing his only vote himself. Perhaps memories are short and it’s been a minute since he was active. Serious threat.
2: Tussock and Ignaz both found favour with multiple predictors to edge out from the chasing pack.
5: happygrue - I suspect this number jumps substantially with a 4th prediction slot. Was painful to leave off my list.
11: Spence – Who better to predict winning a year long bb2020 meta comp than someone who claims bb2020 is the worst ruleset we’ve ever had?
14: Malmir – I wavered on this pick as I’ve got the impression Malmir is also less than thrilled by NewBB. However, you don’t have to like a ruleset to excel in it (at least I hope that’s true) and Malmir has been so dominant on FUMBBL historically that he becomes very hard to overlook here and ultimately I gave him the nod over grue.
16: Elyod. A massive 80% of predictions included Elyod. While some of us were whining about blood bowl being on fire Elyod simply got on with things, arguably adjusting and exploiting the deficiencies in the ruleset faster than anyone else, to become (imo) the dominant online player in bb2020. This approach should be applauded and emulated. The question is: Will he be able to maintain this dominance with a pack of trophy-hungry hyenas on his tail?
So there are 4 clear favourites going by these predictions, but I think the race is much more open than that in reality. Would you bet against say… fxiii crushing several majors in a row? Or Storr cleaning up if he gets clean? The return of Gdaynick would shake things up.
Beyond the people who already play on the superior client there are a number of heavy hitters who could potentially make the switch from BB3 in frustration with the clown show. For example ArtemisBlack would almost certainly excel in the BBT format and Crucifer would immediately become a serious POTY threat.
There are also TT heroes who already play FUMBBL and could put in a big year (attracted by lower average TV in majors and the 15 game spin pool partition in box), chief among them the literal giant KFoged.
I’m excited to see who breaks out into an early lead with Jan Gauntlet, Warpstone Open and the first Minor.
The poll results echoing my own gut instinct on the four favourites is a little troubling, however. I get nervous when my initial guess at something reflects the majority opinion as the wisdom of crowds is notoriously terrible. When most people agree with you, you’re probably wrong. A world in which Elyod, Malmir, me, and grue all end up in the pit at the end of the year looking up at 3 other people on the podium is not that difficult to imagine.
20 entries.
Number of Top 3 predictions. Bracketed numbers show predictions for 1st place.
16: Elyod (6)
14: Malmir (6)
11: Spence (5)
5: happygrue (1)
2: Tussock (1), Ignaz
1: Bazakastine (1), Jan-Erik, wintergreen13, fxiii, Candlejack, dementor42, SideshowBob, Naama, Nelphine, RickWreckless
Full Selection List
Spence (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Storr (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Christer (Malmir, Tussock, Elyod)
Elyod (Elyod, Malmir, Spence)
Java (Elyod, Malmir, Ignaz)
JimmyFantastic (Elyod, Spence, Malmir)
BrainOfJosh (Spence, Jan-Erik, Elyod)
happygrue (happygrue, Malmir, Elyod)
Bazakastine (Bazakastine, happygrue, wintergreen13)
SideshowBob (Malmir, Elyod, happygrue)
ben_awesome (Malmir, fxiii, Candlejack)
DimmyGee (Spence, Elyod, Malmir)
Malmir (Malmir, Spence, Elyod)
ArrestedDevelopment (Malmir, happygrue, Spence)
Rawlf (Elyod, Malmir, dementor42)
Dynamix (Elyod, SideshowBob, Spence)
BaronBucky (Tussock, Naama, Nelphine)
dementor42 (Malmir, Elyod, Ignaz)
HimalayaP1C7 (Spence, Elyod, happygrue)
RickWreckless (Elyod, Spence, RickWreckless)
Comments
Posted by Storr on 2024-01-01 11:02:24
...twenty...four...seven...
Posted by dementor42 on 2024-01-01 21:39:40
I was planning to not play as much fumbbl this year, but maybe Rawlf's trust in me will make me play a bit...
Posted by happygrue on 2024-01-02 17:44:57
At a guess: next year's predictions (You're thinking about POTY 2025, we all are) are going to be a wider cross section. But this year, there are lots of names that _could_ be serious contenders but don't have the record of trying hard in the past year or two. I think a bunch of those names are going to come out of the woodwork to throw down, and some might stick with it and others might fade away again. But As someone who picked myself, Malmir and Elyod - my thinking was mostly about who I think has a demonstrated record of putting in the games to be competitive over time (plus myself because I am actually going to try to win things in a way I haven't before). That and Spence is clearly to much of a gentleman to win his own contest, right? ;)
It's a delightful little sideshow anyway. Should be a fun year! Thanks for organizing it.
It's a delightful little sideshow anyway. Should be a fun year! Thanks for organizing it.
Posted by Bazakastine on 2024-01-02 18:13:57
I do have to say for a lot of people I know are pretty smart and understand odds. Y'all are terrible at understanding how winner take all pools work. Picking the top candidates everyone else will doesn't do much for you ;)
Posted by Spence on 2024-01-02 22:00:07
As soon as I started getting entries I thought of a better way of doing the predictions comp. Maybe 2025. This had the advantage of being simple and generating the basic info I was looking for (who the community rated nowadays), while also serving to annoy a few people who now feel unfairly overlooked and slighted. Hopefully that irritation leads to greater competition levels over the next year - so my victory is all the greater when I inevitably sweep all competitions ;)
It's just a shame Baza got confused and thought he was supposed to list the three nearest coaches to him physically.
It's just a shame Baza got confused and thought he was supposed to list the three nearest coaches to him physically.
Posted by asteflix on 2024-01-06 22:07:40
I think I'll be POTY, followed by Baz and Happygrue in 2nd and 3rd respectively. #NBFL gang 4 lyfe.