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2013-04-09 21:27:54
12 votes, rating 5
12 votes, rating 5
Not Scoring is Sometimes the Best Option
So with the second end to my UI run the biggest question is what would have happened if I'd chosen not to score at end of first half?
The rats just one turned back, they got 2 ko's back and cas'd one of my guys.
Thinking about it vs the natural oneturner not scoring should have been my choice.
In conclusion always consider whether you really want to score vs teams that can one turn!
The rats just one turned back, they got 2 ko's back and cas'd one of my guys.
Thinking about it vs the natural oneturner not scoring should have been my choice.
In conclusion always consider whether you really want to score vs teams that can one turn!
Comments
Posted by Garion on 2013-04-09 21:30:19
always score vs a team that can one turn. They still need a lot of dice to score. it'd be madness not to.
Posted by blader4411 on 2013-04-09 21:45:17
If you hadn't scored, even if he had a couple less players he would have one-turned with those same dice and you'd have been 0-1 down. In my mind, that is NOT better than 1-1 with 1 player less :)
Posted by Nelphine on 2013-04-09 21:54:24
@garion:
assuming you have a sure hands pass accurate (or equivalent) thrower, and an MA 10 sure feet sprint catch gutter runner, and no team re-roll available then, successfully completing a one turn can be expected to occur 8/9*35/36*35/36*(5/6*(5/6*35/36+5/36*5/6)+5/36*5/6*5/6) = 72% of the time.
72% without a team re-roll. That's good enough odds that, since it's your opponent you are worrying about, it's worth assuming he will successfully complete the one turn touchdown.
That means if you are currently tied, and will go into overtime on a draw, then if you score you have at most a 28% chance of winning before overtime. (If he gets a quick draw, or a high kick, or at worst, a quick draw and a touchback, the chance of winning before overtime could go down to as low as 5%.) The other 72% of the time you are giving your opponent the chance to cas you, and an extra chance to get KO's back.
If the numbers game is going to be important (especially if you have managed to remove several key players from your opponents team, but only by KOing them, and your opponent has a clawpombing person with which to try to get that free cas on you), it could very easily be better for you to not score.
assuming you have a sure hands pass accurate (or equivalent) thrower, and an MA 10 sure feet sprint catch gutter runner, and no team re-roll available then, successfully completing a one turn can be expected to occur 8/9*35/36*35/36*(5/6*(5/6*35/36+5/36*5/6)+5/36*5/6*5/6) = 72% of the time.
72% without a team re-roll. That's good enough odds that, since it's your opponent you are worrying about, it's worth assuming he will successfully complete the one turn touchdown.
That means if you are currently tied, and will go into overtime on a draw, then if you score you have at most a 28% chance of winning before overtime. (If he gets a quick draw, or a high kick, or at worst, a quick draw and a touchback, the chance of winning before overtime could go down to as low as 5%.) The other 72% of the time you are giving your opponent the chance to cas you, and an extra chance to get KO's back.
If the numbers game is going to be important (especially if you have managed to remove several key players from your opponents team, but only by KOing them, and your opponent has a clawpombing person with which to try to get that free cas on you), it could very easily be better for you to not score.
Posted by jamiep151 on 2013-04-09 21:54:44
It would have meant I would be receiving pushing for OT rather than defending trying not to go 2-1 down.
Scoring may have been right but needs thinking over.
Scoring may have been right but needs thinking over.
Posted by Naru1981 on 2013-04-09 22:11:42
Don't let HarvestMouse see this lol
Long blog before about it. If not scoring when able it shows you not trying to win. Tried to ban someone for it ;~)
Long blog before about it. If not scoring when able it shows you not trying to win. Tried to ban someone for it ;~)
Posted by jamiep151 on 2013-04-09 22:16:32
I read some of that blog and actually before this game I thought that not scoring was just a hopeful move. However after that last game I think anyone would be hard pressed to say that not scoring was not a viable option and in fact may have been optimal.
Posted by Garion on 2013-04-09 22:54:44
Thats all very good nelphine, but why let him get a 1-0 advantage the next turn, I'm sorry but this is a stupid strategy.
Posted by Overhamsteren on 2013-04-09 23:46:11
You played chaos and got massively outcassed by rats, scoring turn 8 was not the reason you lost. :O
Posted by keggiemckill on 2013-04-10 00:07:50
[quote]Posted by FMSTAN on 2013-04-09 22:11:42
Don't let HarvestMouse see this lol
Long blog before about it. If not scoring when able it shows you not trying to win. Tried to ban someone for it ;~)[/quote]
Winning is personal opinion. Trying to wreck a team, too some, is a way of winning. Scoring more has nothing to do with it. I've attempted to foul before of scoring on several occasions. I always get caught. Try that next time (said in jest.) Then HarvestMouse won't have something to say about it. If he is assisting with a foul, he is taking an action. Just not the action some want to here (all in jest.)
Don't let HarvestMouse see this lol
Long blog before about it. If not scoring when able it shows you not trying to win. Tried to ban someone for it ;~)[/quote]
Winning is personal opinion. Trying to wreck a team, too some, is a way of winning. Scoring more has nothing to do with it. I've attempted to foul before of scoring on several occasions. I always get caught. Try that next time (said in jest.) Then HarvestMouse won't have something to say about it. If he is assisting with a foul, he is taking an action. Just not the action some want to here (all in jest.)
Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2013-04-10 00:13:38
I don't know why ppl are saying you would have been 1-0 down instead of 1-1, that makes no sense.
You had to score on T8 but your mistake was electing to recieve.
You had to score on T8 but your mistake was electing to recieve.
Posted by the_Sage on 2013-04-10 10:25:48
The 'long blog before' wasn't about VS a oneturner, it was about actually giving up a TD difference for the lower chance of KOs (and the LoS turn).