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2019-01-24 23:44:56
6 votes, rating 5.7
6 votes, rating 5.7
600.... And falling!
The only setback I have with getting better as a blood bowl player is that Im getting worse! Atleast if I follow the statistics! But, what statistics is the most correct one? My main problem with getting an accurate messurement is both that I have started to track my rankiing very late and that I have tracked the "wrong" stat.
Which means that I didnt start to write down the wins/losses until I got to 550 games and that I tracked the combined (L/R/B) games as a package, but that is what I have so that is what I will have to follow up on.
And what I had at game 550 was this: 156 W / 114 D / 280 L or 28,4% W / 20,7% D /50,9% L.
Or translated to win/loss would be a win rate of 35.8%.
Now, at 600 it is as follows: 175 W / 121 D / 304 L or 29,2% W / 20,2% D /50,6% L.
Or translated to win/loss would be a win rate of 36.5%.
It is a slight improvement.....
I guess I could threw in some arguments for whatever the stats isnt accurate, but those doesnt affect anything at all in the end but I noticed a slight change in my own mindset when it comes to the "post match syndrome". A few months back never remembered a game as soon as I looged out, but now I remember if I done something really stupid which should imply that I wouldnt do the again.... hopefully!
What can I expect for my next 100 games? I have a few teams that I play that I think will struggle to get over the 35%, but I have some lizards that I hope can push around 50% so with some good luck I may land around 40-45%. Even if that makes it mathematicly impossible to get over 50%.... ever..... I am closer to the goal than I was when I started out, and I think it was Arthur Ashe who said,
"Success is a journey, not a destination. The doing is often more important than the outcome"
I think I leave it at that!!!
Which means that I didnt start to write down the wins/losses until I got to 550 games and that I tracked the combined (L/R/B) games as a package, but that is what I have so that is what I will have to follow up on.
And what I had at game 550 was this: 156 W / 114 D / 280 L or 28,4% W / 20,7% D /50,9% L.
Or translated to win/loss would be a win rate of 35.8%.
Now, at 600 it is as follows: 175 W / 121 D / 304 L or 29,2% W / 20,2% D /50,6% L.
Or translated to win/loss would be a win rate of 36.5%.
It is a slight improvement.....
I guess I could threw in some arguments for whatever the stats isnt accurate, but those doesnt affect anything at all in the end but I noticed a slight change in my own mindset when it comes to the "post match syndrome". A few months back never remembered a game as soon as I looged out, but now I remember if I done something really stupid which should imply that I wouldnt do the again.... hopefully!
What can I expect for my next 100 games? I have a few teams that I play that I think will struggle to get over the 35%, but I have some lizards that I hope can push around 50% so with some good luck I may land around 40-45%. Even if that makes it mathematicly impossible to get over 50%.... ever..... I am closer to the goal than I was when I started out, and I think it was Arthur Ashe who said,
"Success is a journey, not a destination. The doing is often more important than the outcome"
I think I leave it at that!!!
Comments
Posted by Lorebass on 2019-01-25 00:34:19
Pfft that is fine, what you really need to see is that you only lose 50-ish percent of the time. That means 50% not losing!
Posted by finsterface on 2019-01-25 02:17:15
You're not counting the draws as 0.5 and leaving out that info.
Counting draws until 550 games, you got: 38.7%
Currently you got: 39.3% (from your profile)
Your data over the last 50 games is: 19 W / 7 D / 24 L.
That translates to 45.0%.
Now push it beyond 50%.
Or play goblins and foul a skellie.
Counting draws until 550 games, you got: 38.7%
Currently you got: 39.3% (from your profile)
Your data over the last 50 games is: 19 W / 7 D / 24 L.
That translates to 45.0%.
Now push it beyond 50%.
Or play goblins and foul a skellie.
Posted by Verminardo on 2019-01-25 07:43:24
Hang in there! At first when you're trying to improve, there is a big threshold to overcome, you learn new stuff but it's hard to apply it and put it all into a framwork. Eventually it'll all fall into place and then you'll really start seeing the improvement!
Posted by Catalyst32 on 2019-01-25 08:03:33
You want to Win more PICK BETTER.
You want to Lose more REVERSE PICK yourself or play badly.
I mean Box and League... you take what you get either way and it's a crap shoot.
You could end up in unfair match-ups in your favor or against you OR fair match-ups.
You are not your record. Not your overall RECORD. You started and used to knot know HOW yo play, really. Not as good as you play NOW I am assuming.
Judge yourself by your TEAMS if you need some way to measure up.
Especially your teams that are not so GIFTED by STAT UPS and DOUBLES.
Judge yourself by Tournament performances.
Or just have fun man. Like somebody said... you can play Goblins. Have fun.
Do it however you want. Personally I think CR is better than record.
But that is a flawed measurement too. Have fun. Have fun. Have fun.
You want to Lose more REVERSE PICK yourself or play badly.
I mean Box and League... you take what you get either way and it's a crap shoot.
You could end up in unfair match-ups in your favor or against you OR fair match-ups.
You are not your record. Not your overall RECORD. You started and used to knot know HOW yo play, really. Not as good as you play NOW I am assuming.
Judge yourself by your TEAMS if you need some way to measure up.
Especially your teams that are not so GIFTED by STAT UPS and DOUBLES.
Judge yourself by Tournament performances.
Or just have fun man. Like somebody said... you can play Goblins. Have fun.
Do it however you want. Personally I think CR is better than record.
But that is a flawed measurement too. Have fun. Have fun. Have fun.
Posted by ArrestedDevelopment on 2019-01-25 08:35:39
Don't pick at all.
Posted by MrCushtie on 2019-01-25 10:37:23
Or what I read the other day: if you can have more fun losing than the person who's winning, you've still won
Posted by Cloggy on 2019-01-25 16:17:17
Or you could TYPE longwinded rants in FORUM threads or BLOG COMMENTS where you randomly go ALL CAPS every couple of WORDS :)
Posted by Bloodfeast on 2019-01-25 17:34:15
Thanks for the input, and specially Finsterface! With the correct calulation Im not THAT far behind in the hunt for a positive win/loss rating.
And yes, Cataclyst32, I guess I could go 100% ranked and take what I would call a "shortcut". I mainly play ranked when I need to practice for a spceific matchup but the lack of time has made me cut down on that area, and you are absolutley right in that the past stats dont mean much when it comes down to it in the end.
I guess I will stay among the 35-40% the first 50 games until I have exchanged my humans in Svenska Ligan til something els that is a bigger threat. My rookie high elfs in Svenska Löbbel needa maybe 10-15 more matches before they get competitive. Sinced I have a fun project with Khorne in ÖFC also, and those teams combined will probobly drag me down abit. Glad I have my Lizards that hopefully can keep me afloat, with abit of luck.
And yes, Cataclyst32, I guess I could go 100% ranked and take what I would call a "shortcut". I mainly play ranked when I need to practice for a spceific matchup but the lack of time has made me cut down on that area, and you are absolutley right in that the past stats dont mean much when it comes down to it in the end.
I guess I will stay among the 35-40% the first 50 games until I have exchanged my humans in Svenska Ligan til something els that is a bigger threat. My rookie high elfs in Svenska Löbbel needa maybe 10-15 more matches before they get competitive. Sinced I have a fun project with Khorne in ÖFC also, and those teams combined will probobly drag me down abit. Glad I have my Lizards that hopefully can keep me afloat, with abit of luck.
Posted by finsterface on 2019-01-26 00:08:56
'Glad, my comment was of value to you, but I also agree with Catalyst:
Look at CR, if you really want to know how you're doing. Also, you can look just at CR in the Box: https://fumbbl.com/p/coachdevel?c=Bloodfeast&r=0&d=10
You've performed well above CR=150 for almost 1 year, where 150 is defined as the average of all coaches that have played matches on fumbbl!
CR in the Box is not perfect, but probably the least contaminated measure with picking, limited variety of races / opponents / etc. - it actually takes into account the different (empirical) strengths of races at different TV-bands & CR of your opponents, too (unlike win-ratio).
So now compliment yourself and start fouling skellies plus leap with trolls to see it drop!
:P
Look at CR, if you really want to know how you're doing. Also, you can look just at CR in the Box: https://fumbbl.com/p/coachdevel?c=Bloodfeast&r=0&d=10
You've performed well above CR=150 for almost 1 year, where 150 is defined as the average of all coaches that have played matches on fumbbl!
CR in the Box is not perfect, but probably the least contaminated measure with picking, limited variety of races / opponents / etc. - it actually takes into account the different (empirical) strengths of races at different TV-bands & CR of your opponents, too (unlike win-ratio).
So now compliment yourself and start fouling skellies plus leap with trolls to see it drop!
:P