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2009-08-17 18:53:53
22 votes, rating 3.9
22 votes, rating 3.9
Re-rolls, planning and luck
Re-roll table.
columns are, target for roll, chance of fail 1st roll, chance of fail both rolls
I think every turn should have a plan. If all your players start standing, that plan should aim to score, crunch some guys, or both. If all your players start the turn on the deck, then the plan should target getting as many players out of the game alive as you can.
Once you have your plan, there will probably be a time during your turn when you ask Nuffle to consecrate your plan and roll some dice. There are few times (TTM/bonehead/reallystupid) when asking Nuffle absolutely cannot reply with "you fail, your turn ends."
If you have free players, then moving them in to assist doesn't involve asking Nuffle if your turn ends. Players standing up also doesn't end your turn, as long as they don't dodge. Standing all your players up at the start of the turn is a good habit to get into for a rookie. Veterans will formulate more complex plans, where they ask Nuffle to move opposing players away from their fallen, so those fallen can run in assists without dodging.
If I have three linemen who have got the position for a 1 db on a Troll in the center of the LoS, and a lineman on lineman duke out happening in the wide LoS, then the choice of which block to do first should also be part of the plan. If I have the ball, and want to pass it forward over the LoS, then I need the re-roll for the turn available for the block on the section of LoS I wish to pass over. (prone players can't intercept) The other block is probably still worth doing, but when it comes to that block, the ball should already be forward, my turn nearing its end, and the plan can cope with Nuffle's hatred at that point.
Part of the game is forcing the other player to have to come up with a plan that can't withstand much Nuffle hate. You get games where the luck is pretty even, but the scoreline and casualty box don't reflect that. Luck only changes when you roll the dice, and a 2 db result of SKULL/POW is neutral for your luck. The result then depends on who gets to choose.
I consider a 1 db that fells a troll to be much luckier than a 1 db that fells a lineman, but the client's luck counter doesn't record the results, only the rolls.
EDIT: Reisender points out Christer's luck formula
http://fumbbl.com/help:Luck
I don't know how SkiJunkie implemented it, but the formula presented means that if your plan only requires you to get a push, and you take a push, it pushes your luck towards neutral. Some plans like chainpushes, and tag-team crowdpushes require you to take push results over knockdown results. Planning to only need a push to open a path in your opponents defense for ball carriers or receivers is good strategy less likely to burn your re-roll for the turn.
May your planning and your re-rolls sustain your teams on the days that Nuffle won't.
columns are, target for roll, chance of fail 1st roll, chance of fail both rolls
- 2+ 1/6 1/36
- 3+ 2/6 4/36
- 4+ 3/6 9/36
- 5+ 4/6 16/36
- 6+ 5/6 25/36
I think every turn should have a plan. If all your players start standing, that plan should aim to score, crunch some guys, or both. If all your players start the turn on the deck, then the plan should target getting as many players out of the game alive as you can.
Once you have your plan, there will probably be a time during your turn when you ask Nuffle to consecrate your plan and roll some dice. There are few times (TTM/bonehead/reallystupid) when asking Nuffle absolutely cannot reply with "you fail, your turn ends."
If you have free players, then moving them in to assist doesn't involve asking Nuffle if your turn ends. Players standing up also doesn't end your turn, as long as they don't dodge. Standing all your players up at the start of the turn is a good habit to get into for a rookie. Veterans will formulate more complex plans, where they ask Nuffle to move opposing players away from their fallen, so those fallen can run in assists without dodging.
If I have three linemen who have got the position for a 1 db on a Troll in the center of the LoS, and a lineman on lineman duke out happening in the wide LoS, then the choice of which block to do first should also be part of the plan. If I have the ball, and want to pass it forward over the LoS, then I need the re-roll for the turn available for the block on the section of LoS I wish to pass over. (prone players can't intercept) The other block is probably still worth doing, but when it comes to that block, the ball should already be forward, my turn nearing its end, and the plan can cope with Nuffle's hatred at that point.
Part of the game is forcing the other player to have to come up with a plan that can't withstand much Nuffle hate. You get games where the luck is pretty even, but the scoreline and casualty box don't reflect that. Luck only changes when you roll the dice, and a 2 db result of SKULL/POW is neutral for your luck. The result then depends on who gets to choose.
I consider a 1 db that fells a troll to be much luckier than a 1 db that fells a lineman, but the client's luck counter doesn't record the results, only the rolls.
EDIT: Reisender points out Christer's luck formula
http://fumbbl.com/help:Luck
I don't know how SkiJunkie implemented it, but the formula presented means that if your plan only requires you to get a push, and you take a push, it pushes your luck towards neutral. Some plans like chainpushes, and tag-team crowdpushes require you to take push results over knockdown results. Planning to only need a push to open a path in your opponents defense for ball carriers or receivers is good strategy less likely to burn your re-roll for the turn.
May your planning and your re-rolls sustain your teams on the days that Nuffle won't.
Comments
Posted by Reisender on 2009-08-17 19:28:44
It is NOT a luck counter. It counts success/fail on certain rolls. It was never meant to count pure "luck" as this is not possible (for the reasons you state - this is where human brain>ogre brain>computer).
I am not Christer to state what it counts, but he posted his view in the forums variuos times.
Lots of people criticise this counter because they misunderstand what it can be and was meant to be.
(This criticise only a small part of your post, not the post in general which is completely reasonable)
I am not Christer to state what it counts, but he posted his view in the forums variuos times.
Lots of people criticise this counter because they misunderstand what it can be and was meant to be.
(This criticise only a small part of your post, not the post in general which is completely reasonable)
Posted by pythrr on 2009-08-18 10:12:46
the counter is the measure of nuffle's disfavour
it is a mystical indicator, somewhat less accurate than goat's entrails, but none the less important for that fact
it is a mystical indicator, somewhat less accurate than goat's entrails, but none the less important for that fact