Posted by pythrr on 2012-07-06 00:30:55

yeah, the RNG is obviously being controlled by a special AI bot (aka Woodstock) who devotes its life to making strange things happen......

Posted by pythrr on 2012-07-06 00:32:04

re yr last game. you are skaven, skaven break like Tom Cruise's marriage vows. get used to it.

Posted by gjopie on 2012-07-06 00:32:06

If you stop worrying about the RNG, I guarantee you'll have more fun.

Posted by grendel2410 on 2012-07-06 01:08:37

ey I'm enjoying a lot. Really. And one of the things I enjoy most is reading people defending this randomizer even when they see the dices...

The other day a friend of mine said a very interesting thing: The best way to see if that randomizer is real random or not, is trying to check if people play in a different way fumbbl than real world bloodbowl.

And people plays here different, for example with the fouls......

Why is it so far from the 1/3 the spotted fouls? No idea men. But dont tell that it is not...

And pythrr...check any programming randomizer and tell me if the agrupation of values is normal or not....simply fumbbl is not an exception...

Posted by pythrr on 2012-07-06 01:12:25

dude

the RNG is as random as they get

less paranoia, more fun.

Posted by grendel2410 on 2012-07-06 01:22:45

I repeat im getting tons of fun playing...in less than two weeks i've played like 70 matches...

But, do you still play sometimes with real dices? just asking

Posted by Niebling on 2012-07-06 01:25:26

lol all your blog entrys are whine over the RNG? :)

Posted by Kelkka on 2012-07-06 01:48:17

Even better way to look at it is considering what if weird stuff never happens? If every single match both players would roll perfect 16% distribution of every result, would it then be good randomizer?

And as a sidenote, i have played a match on TT where opponent rolled straight sixes for whole game. Had 2 mummies and he cassed them 4 times total and destroyed rest of the team too. Crazy stuff happens like it or not.

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-07-06 01:55:35

So. 13 blocks with mb and po, 18 blocks with mighty blow, 4 blocks with no mighty blow. 11 fouls with dirty player (and knowing the angry newscasters who are the BEST KILLERS ON THE WHOLE SITE with over 5.9 cas caused PER GAME) who against skaven will guarantee they break armour every foul.

Lets look at the odds!

First the fouls. 11 DP fouls, and we can assume 10 of them have +1 to injury (its probably all 11 but oh well). Well also assume they had so many assists they always broke armour, because, really, thats the angry newscasters.

10 fouls with +1: Expected cas: 10/36*10 = 100/36.
1 foul without +1: Expected cas: 6/36
Blocks, probably 7 of them with 3 dicebecause its angry newscaster tomb guardians with mass assists vs skaven. These 7 have mb, but no po.
Lets say half had 7/8 chance of knock down per die, and half had 77/216.
Expected cas: (7/2*7/8 + 7/2*77/216)*(15/36*10/36 + 6/36*1/6)= ~0.62 expected cas
13 2 die with block/mb/po/tackle, and po is always used because its angry newscasters = 13*5/9*(15/36*(10/36+26/36*10/36) + 1/6*(1/6+5/6*1/6) + 15/36*(15/36*(10/36+26/36*10/36) + 1/6*(1/6+5/6*1/6)) = ~2.56 expected cas
11 with mb and 2die = 11*5/9*(15/36*10/36 +1/6*1/6) = ~0.88 expected cas
4 2die with no bash skills = 4*5/9*15/36*1/6 = ~0.15 expected cas

Total expected cas from this game given the stats at the end: 100/36+1/6+0.62+2.56+0.88+0.15 = 7.15


Now, the angry newscasters also foul at the end of their turn if at all possible so that they dont lose any blocking opportunities. With 11 fouls we would expect 2 skeletons to be sent off, but angry newscasters runs with more than 13 players, and LOTS of extra dirty players. So while it is rare (2% chance, or 25 times MORE likely than quad skulls) to not have anyone sent off, even if a few skeletons had been sent off most likely they still would have fouled 11 times, for the same expected cas.


Therefore, getting 8 cas against you, AND having no one sent off from fouls is about as likely as knocking over a blodger on a -2 die block without tackle or wrestle, but with a team re-roll available.

The chance of getting 8 cas against you given the stats of this game is BETTER than the chance of knocking down a block player with a 1 die block and no re-roll.

And if you think the RNG is against you because a 1 die block rolled a push/pow or a pow, then you really don't understand how the RNG works.


NOTE: I made all assumptions against AV 7. Given that the majority of the expected cas come from fouls (where armour wouldnt matter) and po rolls (where av 8 doesn't make that much difference compared to AV 7), the actual expected would probably be somewhere near 7.05, but since that isn't a significant change I'm not going to work out the actual expected.

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-07-06 02:01:43

whoops, you got 10 cas against you not 8. So the chances of that are about the same as a 1 die block without tackle knocking down a blodger. STILL not particularly unlucky at all.

Posted by GAZZATROT on 2012-07-06 02:09:08

Yeah!!! I agree with everything that was said by NelphiZzzzzzz ;)

Posted by Jeffro on 2012-07-06 02:39:12

Could the reason you see more strange things happen with dice on FUMBBL be because you can play more games in less time on FUMBBL than you can with TT... and therefore play more games?

... and yeah... all your blogs are about RNGs... get a new dog to kick. ~BP

Posted by xnoelx on 2012-07-06 03:10:30

I think the clue is probably in that you've played 70 games on here. The more dice you roll, the more likely it is that any given unlikely combination will show up at some point. And I play regularly with real dice, Blood Bowl & other games. & I consistently roll badly in all of 'em, just like I do here. I'm known for it (the real dice at least, I doubt I'm known for much on here). It's probably karma; i.e. you're a bad person... but then so am I, by that logic, and that can't be right. Anyway, enough of this nonsense, I'm off to strangle some puppies...

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-07-06 03:21:17

but again - this WASN'T unlikely! That was a slightly above average showing for the Angry Newscasters vs skaven! A bad game would have see you with at least 13 casualties. Moral of the story - don't mess with the Newscasters!

Posted by Cavetroll on 2012-07-06 03:22:30

spiro, is that you?

Posted by xnoelx on 2012-07-06 03:36:37

Ah, yeah, sloppy language on my part, apologies. And given that dice rolls are independent events, any given combination is equally as likely to happen as any other, etc. So, what I said but without 'unlikely'.

Posted by grendel2410 on 2012-07-06 12:18:29

Nelphine, it seems you have a lot of spare time.

Could you please check my matches (or anybody elses) and tell the relation between fouls and banned players?