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2013-06-25 06:16:23
51 votes, rating 5.6
51 votes, rating 5.6
How to win at dice.
As a craps dealer in Vegas, I've seen the face of Nuffle and lived, many times over. And I have, occasionally, met people who thought they were "good" craps players. Not just good at understanding the game, knowing payoffs for bets, etc. "Good" in the sense that they think they can beat the game by using their supposedly unique betting strategy over the long term. (They are, of course, fooling themselves.)
But far too often, I run into players who understand the game well enough, make proper bets using sound strategy, and still lose their money. They desperately ask, "What am I doing wrong?". My answer is, "You're not doing anything wrong. It's just that craps is a game of luck; no matter how well you play, you've still got to be lucky to win."
(Yes, I do speak with semicolons.)
In Blood Bowl, I try to play my best. Most of the time that means taking small chances for small gains over several turns. But sometimes, just sometimes, it means taking BIG chances for BIG gains over one critical turn.
Many coaches are caught by surprise when longshot plays pay off. They think they've been Nuffled, diced, etc. They're right, to a degree. But they have also been Nuffled when their opponent plays a very conservative game, making small gains turn after turn. Nuffle is never absent from the game of Blood Bowl- his presence is universal wherever dice are rolled.
You see, Nuffle works two ways. A little luck, action after action, is just as unlikely as a lot of luck on one action. And many coaches don't understand that. For those of you who understand the game of craps, this is analogous to the Don't Pass player who expects to win every wager, not realizing that his frequent wins carry a smaller payoff that is precisely calculated to nearly cover the admittedly smaller probability of a loss.
So, how does this translate over the board? Strategically, the point is this- the perfect coach will play conservatively most of the time, but occasionally he will try longshot plays that carry great rewards, especially if failure does not expose him to serious disadvantages in later turns.
Cautious play will- not always, but usually- bring good results. Daring play will- sometimes, but not always- bring outstanding results. Calculating these risks and rewards is usually done intuitively. (Blood Bowl is not as simple as craps.) But understanding that no matter how you play luck remains a factor will permit you to win graciously, and lose with dignity, with the knowledge that you have played your best, that we ALL take chances, and that this beloved game of Blood Bowl is never quite entirely under your control.
But far too often, I run into players who understand the game well enough, make proper bets using sound strategy, and still lose their money. They desperately ask, "What am I doing wrong?". My answer is, "You're not doing anything wrong. It's just that craps is a game of luck; no matter how well you play, you've still got to be lucky to win."
(Yes, I do speak with semicolons.)
In Blood Bowl, I try to play my best. Most of the time that means taking small chances for small gains over several turns. But sometimes, just sometimes, it means taking BIG chances for BIG gains over one critical turn.
Many coaches are caught by surprise when longshot plays pay off. They think they've been Nuffled, diced, etc. They're right, to a degree. But they have also been Nuffled when their opponent plays a very conservative game, making small gains turn after turn. Nuffle is never absent from the game of Blood Bowl- his presence is universal wherever dice are rolled.
You see, Nuffle works two ways. A little luck, action after action, is just as unlikely as a lot of luck on one action. And many coaches don't understand that. For those of you who understand the game of craps, this is analogous to the Don't Pass player who expects to win every wager, not realizing that his frequent wins carry a smaller payoff that is precisely calculated to nearly cover the admittedly smaller probability of a loss.
So, how does this translate over the board? Strategically, the point is this- the perfect coach will play conservatively most of the time, but occasionally he will try longshot plays that carry great rewards, especially if failure does not expose him to serious disadvantages in later turns.
Cautious play will- not always, but usually- bring good results. Daring play will- sometimes, but not always- bring outstanding results. Calculating these risks and rewards is usually done intuitively. (Blood Bowl is not as simple as craps.) But understanding that no matter how you play luck remains a factor will permit you to win graciously, and lose with dignity, with the knowledge that you have played your best, that we ALL take chances, and that this beloved game of Blood Bowl is never quite entirely under your control.
Comments
Posted by Overhamsteren on 2013-06-25 06:48:35
Nice write up. A good time to go crazy is when keeping playing cautiously will likely just result in losing slowly. :)
Posted by Badoek on 2013-06-25 08:42:42
Good one, shall have to link to this blog in the future.
Posted by Rat_Salat on 2013-06-25 09:06:21
Nice one B. 6 all the way.
Posted by luckyjim12 on 2013-06-25 09:41:28
6 for eloquence.
Posted by JamesSeals80 on 2013-06-25 10:31:39
Rated 6 for the semi colon if nothing else!
Some whiners I can think of should read this...
Some whiners I can think of should read this...
Posted by harvestmouse on 2013-06-25 10:39:54
I like also.
Posted by PaddyMick on 2013-06-25 10:58:20
Risky plays are also the most fun imo
When they come off it's awesome
But yeah lots of coaches don't understand Variance
Hopefully a few more do now
Well said
When they come off it's awesome
But yeah lots of coaches don't understand Variance
Hopefully a few more do now
Well said
Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2013-06-25 12:08:17
No-one can win at craps. That is the difference.
Posted by Retro21 on 2013-06-25 13:16:36
I'm with you paddymick, exciting plays are my favourite as well, great when they come off and feels more realistic.
Posted by Retro21 on 2013-06-25 13:22:15
Forgot to say, real nice blog. I can lose focus when the dice get too bad and take it personally (which is irrational and stupid I know), it's just trying to remember that the dice are random.
Apparently, there was a study which found some people could slightly affect the dice they rolled. I'll need to find the article.
Apparently, there was a study which found some people could slightly affect the dice they rolled. I'll need to find the article.
Posted by koadah on 2013-06-25 15:30:58
"But they have also been Nuffled when their opponent plays a very conservative game, making small gains turn after turn."
That depends. I would not call it Nuffled if the gains are in line with probability.
If a CPOMBer keeps piling on sooner or later someone is going to get hurt. That is not a Nuffling.
A good coach will play to the team's strengths and use good positioning to control the game. That is not a Nuffling. All they really need is for Nuffle to keep out of it.
Now, when the good coach has done everything right and put the weaker coach (usually me) deep in the hole that is when you need the heroics.
Kid: "So, how's it going Dad?"
Dad: "Not good. I need to complete an 8+ pass into double coverage, dodge out (twice) and make two GFIs to win".
K: "That's impossible! You can't roll 8 on D6. You're doomed."
D: "Ah, but in this game a 6 always succeeds. So with the pass skill the pass is almost 1/3. Dodge & catch help me out on the catcher so I'll hopefully still have a RR for the GFIs. Mustn't grumble really since the guy has out played me all game." ;)
K: "Cool. If you make it the guy is gonna have a fit." :)
That depends. I would not call it Nuffled if the gains are in line with probability.
If a CPOMBer keeps piling on sooner or later someone is going to get hurt. That is not a Nuffling.
A good coach will play to the team's strengths and use good positioning to control the game. That is not a Nuffling. All they really need is for Nuffle to keep out of it.
Now, when the good coach has done everything right and put the weaker coach (usually me) deep in the hole that is when you need the heroics.
Kid: "So, how's it going Dad?"
Dad: "Not good. I need to complete an 8+ pass into double coverage, dodge out (twice) and make two GFIs to win".
K: "That's impossible! You can't roll 8 on D6. You're doomed."
D: "Ah, but in this game a 6 always succeeds. So with the pass skill the pass is almost 1/3. Dodge & catch help me out on the catcher so I'll hopefully still have a RR for the GFIs. Mustn't grumble really since the guy has out played me all game." ;)
K: "Cool. If you make it the guy is gonna have a fit." :)
Posted by Jeffro on 2013-06-25 15:31:46
The dice always win, cuz they are unattached to the outcome of what side ends face up. And that is all there is about that ;)
Posted by Narlgoth on 2013-06-25 15:33:16
Not really how to win at dice, more just about dice- they are random.
Posted by licker on 2013-06-25 16:44:03
"No-one can win at craps. That is the difference."
This is untrue.
Some people do actually win at craps. Not because they are doing anything different than anyone else (unless you believe what the dice setters say...), but just because they manage to beat the odds; i.e. they are lucky, even over a long period of time.
A better analogy might be poker, though you lose the dice portion of the comparison. Poker, at least, contains an element of skill along with the luck factor.
Where do you work at B_SIDE? And has anyone ever tried to slip in some FUMBBL dice to your game? :D
This is untrue.
Some people do actually win at craps. Not because they are doing anything different than anyone else (unless you believe what the dice setters say...), but just because they manage to beat the odds; i.e. they are lucky, even over a long period of time.
A better analogy might be poker, though you lose the dice portion of the comparison. Poker, at least, contains an element of skill along with the luck factor.
Where do you work at B_SIDE? And has anyone ever tried to slip in some FUMBBL dice to your game? :D
Posted by Wreckage on 2013-06-25 16:58:29
Just should mention that we take many little risks instead of a large one in BB because in BB exists a unique mechanic: Turnovers.
If you take a big risk there are only two possible outcomes: Failure and success. Many actions instead of one give you better odds to 'gradually succeed'. You get only one shot at doing something wrong.
That's why somebody dealing with probabilities will find that risks he is used to take in different context will make him rather lose in BB.
However especially towards the end of a turn there is usually nothing wrong with raising the risk. It usually becomes a matter of player safety instead of a matter of turn-over damage. At that point you can even do actions that have much lower success chances than a single dangerous action in the beginning would have had.
Then there are turns where taking a high risk in the beginning is more benefitial. Like the last turn of a half when improving your position doesn't matter and all your options are down to either score or not score. At that point you can't gradually succeed, you can only either fail or succeed wich means you should go all out.
So to put it on a chart the pressure behavior should be something like this througout a game
Turn------------- 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 016
Pressure (%) 20 23 25 26 40 65 85 95 24 28 30 36 50 78 94 100
If you take a big risk there are only two possible outcomes: Failure and success. Many actions instead of one give you better odds to 'gradually succeed'. You get only one shot at doing something wrong.
That's why somebody dealing with probabilities will find that risks he is used to take in different context will make him rather lose in BB.
However especially towards the end of a turn there is usually nothing wrong with raising the risk. It usually becomes a matter of player safety instead of a matter of turn-over damage. At that point you can even do actions that have much lower success chances than a single dangerous action in the beginning would have had.
Then there are turns where taking a high risk in the beginning is more benefitial. Like the last turn of a half when improving your position doesn't matter and all your options are down to either score or not score. At that point you can't gradually succeed, you can only either fail or succeed wich means you should go all out.
So to put it on a chart the pressure behavior should be something like this througout a game
Turn------------- 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 016
Pressure (%) 20 23 25 26 40 65 85 95 24 28 30 36 50 78 94 100
Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2013-06-25 16:59:03
The only people who "win" at craps are the ones that never play.
Posted by B_SIDE on 2013-06-25 20:40:43
Some people do win at craps, but it's not because of any system. It's because of Nuffle. He lives right down the street from me. (It's my understanding that about 20% of players walk away winners from any gaming session. If they were satisfied with shorter gaming sessions or smaller wins, there would be far more winners.)
I think what I meant to say in the original blog was that there is more of a random element, even in "low risk" moves, than most people realize. Our job is to avoid risky moves with small payoffs, but we should keep our eyes open for risky moves with big payoffs. Sometimes they really are worth the gamble! Especially since risk simply cannot be entirely avoided in the game.
A quick example of risk: you've just received a deep kickoff and you're going to take your 3 hits on the line, cage up, blitz, and throw a quick pass between some 4AG players for a cheap SPP. You've got:
4 2dB's with block
2+ pick up
2+ pass
2+ catch...
and a nearly 50% chance of a turnover.
There are, in a sense, TWO Nuffles. There is the Nuffle you see (6+ 4+ 4+ GFI GFI TD!!!!) and there is the Nuffle you don't see (see above illustration). I think I'll blog more on the invisible Nuffle another time. He's an insidious little fellow, and the primary force we battle against in the spiritual warfare of strategy dice games.
I think what I meant to say in the original blog was that there is more of a random element, even in "low risk" moves, than most people realize. Our job is to avoid risky moves with small payoffs, but we should keep our eyes open for risky moves with big payoffs. Sometimes they really are worth the gamble! Especially since risk simply cannot be entirely avoided in the game.
A quick example of risk: you've just received a deep kickoff and you're going to take your 3 hits on the line, cage up, blitz, and throw a quick pass between some 4AG players for a cheap SPP. You've got:
4 2dB's with block
2+ pick up
2+ pass
2+ catch...
and a nearly 50% chance of a turnover.
There are, in a sense, TWO Nuffles. There is the Nuffle you see (6+ 4+ 4+ GFI GFI TD!!!!) and there is the Nuffle you don't see (see above illustration). I think I'll blog more on the invisible Nuffle another time. He's an insidious little fellow, and the primary force we battle against in the spiritual warfare of strategy dice games.
Posted by koadah on 2013-06-25 21:48:27
I don't see what you mean by your illustration. Nuffle is right there in plain sight.
The difference is that if you make the blocks and fail the pick up it may not matter at all vs most most teams. It may even help you as some coaches get over excited and over pursue.
If you skull out on the first block no one is going to miss Nuffle in that.
And you wouldn't be making the pass unless you expect the ball to fall fairly safely on a dropped catch.
Every time you pick up the dice that is Nuffle right there. He cannot be invisible.
50% chance of your turn ending is not really that important. What is important is the position that you will be in if an action fails. If it's that big a deal don't make the pass for a measly SPP. Each turn has 100% chance of ending some time.
The difference is that if you make the blocks and fail the pick up it may not matter at all vs most most teams. It may even help you as some coaches get over excited and over pursue.
If you skull out on the first block no one is going to miss Nuffle in that.
And you wouldn't be making the pass unless you expect the ball to fall fairly safely on a dropped catch.
Every time you pick up the dice that is Nuffle right there. He cannot be invisible.
50% chance of your turn ending is not really that important. What is important is the position that you will be in if an action fails. If it's that big a deal don't make the pass for a measly SPP. Each turn has 100% chance of ending some time.