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2010-02-16 11:07:12
18 votes, rating 3.9
18 votes, rating 3.9
On bad luck
I've had some really bad luck a few games in a row, at least it felt that way to me. Read my last blog entry to hear me complaining about that. It seems to be over for the moment, so you can stop worrying and find some sleep again.
To put this up first: I do not believe in any malfunctioning of the RNG. Although it sometimes feels like being punished by Nuffle, he will soon smile on you again for sure. Even if in some games it seems to be, in fact, a D4 you're rolling, you will soon crush an opposing team for sure. Have mercy with your opponent in those turning point matches.
I think that Quadros' contribution to that matter is not only adequate with respect to psychological issues but also concerning the mechanisms of the game. (Here he comes, not even 100 games old but trying to explain the mechanisms of the game. Hope you can forgive me that hubris.)
When I have to play one of those bad games, I often feel right at the beginning that this isn't gonna end good for me. Perfect Defense, Blitz, or even the profane quadruple-skull in the first block -- often it's downhill from then. Reading Quadros' post, I noticed something that will be most obvious to most of you, but to me it wasn't: minor failures can have a dramatic impact on your strategy. You might be forced to roll more dice, e.g. GFI one additional square or dodge more often, to compensate for that little failed roll. And that's where the vicious circle comes in! Those tiny bits of bad luck at the beginning of your drive (they don't even have to cause turnovers to have that impact) will get you into the backhand and, at least against experienced coaches, keep you there for the rest of the drive. The new kick-off does not guarantee salvation: Having lost one offensive drive, you feel inclined to, again, engage in more dice action. Your misery will continue.
You might call this some kind of butterfly effect, and it's most likely to occur when something at the beginning of your offensive drive goes wrong. If you set up to whipe out your opponents LOS, or at least to get them on the ground, and your first block gives four pale ones, you might sudddenly find yourself in a defensive position that doesn't fit to your setup.
On the other hand, I am well aware that there are lots of bad luck to be suffered in a defensive drive. But, somehow, you do not base your strategy on the assumption that your LOS is standing while the opposing players are down or at least pushed back when you are kicking.
In conclusion, how much bad luck a failed roll really means does depend on the importance of that action for your strategy. But, surely, the RNG doesn't know about that. Experienced coaches will be able to adopt their strategy in such a way that the butterfly effect is avoided or, at least, limited to a few follow-up actions while unexperienced coaches, like me, tend to run into that trap and hope for a favourable interpretation of the laws of probability.
To put this up first: I do not believe in any malfunctioning of the RNG. Although it sometimes feels like being punished by Nuffle, he will soon smile on you again for sure. Even if in some games it seems to be, in fact, a D4 you're rolling, you will soon crush an opposing team for sure. Have mercy with your opponent in those turning point matches.
I think that Quadros' contribution to that matter is not only adequate with respect to psychological issues but also concerning the mechanisms of the game. (Here he comes, not even 100 games old but trying to explain the mechanisms of the game. Hope you can forgive me that hubris.)
When I have to play one of those bad games, I often feel right at the beginning that this isn't gonna end good for me. Perfect Defense, Blitz, or even the profane quadruple-skull in the first block -- often it's downhill from then. Reading Quadros' post, I noticed something that will be most obvious to most of you, but to me it wasn't: minor failures can have a dramatic impact on your strategy. You might be forced to roll more dice, e.g. GFI one additional square or dodge more often, to compensate for that little failed roll. And that's where the vicious circle comes in! Those tiny bits of bad luck at the beginning of your drive (they don't even have to cause turnovers to have that impact) will get you into the backhand and, at least against experienced coaches, keep you there for the rest of the drive. The new kick-off does not guarantee salvation: Having lost one offensive drive, you feel inclined to, again, engage in more dice action. Your misery will continue.
You might call this some kind of butterfly effect, and it's most likely to occur when something at the beginning of your offensive drive goes wrong. If you set up to whipe out your opponents LOS, or at least to get them on the ground, and your first block gives four pale ones, you might sudddenly find yourself in a defensive position that doesn't fit to your setup.
On the other hand, I am well aware that there are lots of bad luck to be suffered in a defensive drive. But, somehow, you do not base your strategy on the assumption that your LOS is standing while the opposing players are down or at least pushed back when you are kicking.
In conclusion, how much bad luck a failed roll really means does depend on the importance of that action for your strategy. But, surely, the RNG doesn't know about that. Experienced coaches will be able to adopt their strategy in such a way that the butterfly effect is avoided or, at least, limited to a few follow-up actions while unexperienced coaches, like me, tend to run into that trap and hope for a favourable interpretation of the laws of probability.
Comments
Posted by Calthor on 2010-02-16 11:33:19
Interesting theory, actually. Not sure how the knowledge of that would help me improve my game though. ;)
Posted by CircularLogic on 2010-02-16 12:20:27
Nice post.
Though there is an additional factor in early bad luck - it modifies the way you play. Run into bad luck at the start and you either play more conservative or more risky (depending on the type) than you would normally do.
It might also happen, that bad luck dampens your will to win.
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=2941165
In that match, the psychology had an large impact. Beginning started bad with only skulls and pushes on 5 consecutive blocks and 2 cas against in his first turn taking one of my best guys out. I stabilized, but when nuffle decided to kick me (with a blitz against in the deciding drive that resulted in my best man getting niggled and a 1 when I needed a 2+ to win which resulted in another SI) I nearly lost the will to go for the win. I managed to force myself to play on and create the best possible chance and indeed - I made a 5+ dodge for a 1d block, which resulted in the ball going into the crowd and my elves going for the victory.
Though there is an additional factor in early bad luck - it modifies the way you play. Run into bad luck at the start and you either play more conservative or more risky (depending on the type) than you would normally do.
It might also happen, that bad luck dampens your will to win.
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=2941165
In that match, the psychology had an large impact. Beginning started bad with only skulls and pushes on 5 consecutive blocks and 2 cas against in his first turn taking one of my best guys out. I stabilized, but when nuffle decided to kick me (with a blitz against in the deciding drive that resulted in my best man getting niggled and a 1 when I needed a 2+ to win which resulted in another SI) I nearly lost the will to go for the win. I managed to force myself to play on and create the best possible chance and indeed - I made a 5+ dodge for a 1d block, which resulted in the ball going into the crowd and my elves going for the victory.
Posted by Tamzarian on 2010-02-16 13:22:41
Thanks! Actually, that's exactly why I consider this explanation of Quadro's to be so fine. Usually, you won't be forced, in a strong sense, to roll any dice at all. You could just sit there and watch. But, if you want to win or at least draw the match, which would be part of the psychological aspects, you sometimes have to compensate that initial bad luck by doing risky stuff, which is due to the game mechanisms. And then, the butterflies wing cause a hurricane of snake eyes and the like simply by getting you to throw much more dice. I cannot get a safe grip on the point I'm trying to make, but I don't think we disagree.
Posted by maysrill on 2010-02-16 14:18:39
Another factor is the basic level of dice-rolling each race requires. In my experience, the temptation to over-handle the ball or make crazy dodges (because they can work!) make elves hazardous, given my play-style. I get worse "luck" with them because I test my luck more.
When I play races like Orcs or Dwarves, a single pickup of the ball, no dodging, and all 2db (or better) is an ideal drive (possibly with a low % handoff for spp if it's a romp).
The "luck" may be equal in both cases, but the results feel luckier for the safe, conservative team. They experience fewer deviations from the mean. Dice-happy races (especially ones like vamps and ogres) see too much of the spectrum of the bell curve of luck to see a clean game (other than very rarely).
The effects of the game-to-date on this is large. While elves are capable of cool stuff shorthanded and dealing with TZ penalties, slow, low/average AG teams start really throwing it up to Nuffle to save them. It might work 1/5th of the time, but usually it's a spiraling disaster. The reason is similar though, you're making too many rolls of the not-safe kind (3+ and 4+ rolls or worse, 1db and -2db blocks).
When I play races like Orcs or Dwarves, a single pickup of the ball, no dodging, and all 2db (or better) is an ideal drive (possibly with a low % handoff for spp if it's a romp).
The "luck" may be equal in both cases, but the results feel luckier for the safe, conservative team. They experience fewer deviations from the mean. Dice-happy races (especially ones like vamps and ogres) see too much of the spectrum of the bell curve of luck to see a clean game (other than very rarely).
The effects of the game-to-date on this is large. While elves are capable of cool stuff shorthanded and dealing with TZ penalties, slow, low/average AG teams start really throwing it up to Nuffle to save them. It might work 1/5th of the time, but usually it's a spiraling disaster. The reason is similar though, you're making too many rolls of the not-safe kind (3+ and 4+ rolls or worse, 1db and -2db blocks).