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2023-04-20 11:32:38
8 votes, rating 6
8 votes, rating 6
Rumbles and NO STARS
It's been a while since the RRR star ban came into effect. Here is my blog post about the RRR meta before the ban. Actually, we have half as many RRR completed (16) than during the Star era (32); for the purpose of this survey I'm counting the currently running one where one of 3 Amazon teams could win, as "completed". Oddly enough, in the star era we averaged around 3 rumbles per month while now we are solidly at 2 per month, but that might be explained by a general FUMBBL trend.
So, how do the two metas compare?
In the star era, the most represented teams, out of 512, were:
In the post-star era, the most represented teams, out of 256, were:
The first major shift is the total disappearance of Snotling teams. In fact, eventually just one turned up, in RRR 541, not included in this survey because it's still ongoing. To be fair, the attendance of RRRs 540, 541 and 542 shuffles things around quite a bit, Necromantic drop to 6th, and Orcs and Lizards rise to 4th and 5th. An updated version of this post might be in order, later on.
Comparing attendance, you can see the top 4 teams in the Star Era (Dwarf, Snotling, Orc, Amazon) had the lion's share of the wins (21/32) while the new top 4 (Amazon, Tomb Kings, Necromantic Horror and Skaven) only hog 50% of the wins, with Skaven having the highest number of lost finals after Amazons. You'll get there, rats!
We still have the Amazon problem, but it seems that the other two hard counters to Snotlings have faltered after their disappearance. Orcs are still winning but nowhere near as before, and Dwarves are back to being a griefer team since there's less of their favourite victims around. Where are Chaos Dwarves? Everyone groans when they see that orange icon, but they're not as succesful in the long run, either with or without stars around. In that regard it has to be said that the Star Era of RRRs ended just as Bomber Dribblesnot's reign began, so maybe they never got around to benefiting from the exploit (although some of them tried!).
It kinda feels like a more even playing field now, although I'd like to see at some point a gradual return of stars and what effect it would have on the meta, maybe if/when Mega Stars are frozen out of the [C] division? We shall see.
Lastly, it is the Khemri Edition™ after all!
What else do you notice?
So, how do the two metas compare?
In the star era, the most represented teams, out of 512, were:
| Roster | Teams | Average per Rumble | Representation | Wins | Success Rate | Lost Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwarf | 40 | 1,25 | 0,66 | 5 | 0,13 | 4 |
| Snotling | 39 | 1,22 | 0,69 | 7 | 0,18 | 2 |
| Orc | 38 | 1,19 | 0,72 | 3 | 0,08 | 2 |
| Amazon | 36 | 1,13 | 0,72 | 4 | 0,11 | 4 |
| Tomb Kings | 31 | 0,97 | 0,66 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shambling Undead | 24 | 0,75 | 0,56 | 1 | 0,04 | 1 |
| Human | 23 | 0,72 | 0,5 | 1 | 0,04 | |
| Underworld Denizens | 23 | 0,72 | 0,47 | 2 | 0,09 | 3 |
| Black Orc | 21 | 0,66 | 0,53 | 0 | ||
| Imperial Nobility | 19 | 0,59 | 0,53 | 0 | 2 | |
| Khorne | 19 | 0,59 | 0,41 | 0 | ||
| Skaven | 18 | 0,56 | 0,38 | 1 | 0,06 | |
| Dark Elf | 17 | 0,53 | 0,41 | 0 | ||
| Norse | 16 | 0,5 | 0,38 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ogre | 16 | 0,5 | 0,31 | 4 | 0,25 | |
| Necromantic Horror | 15 | 0,47 | 0,44 | 0 | ||
| Halfling | 15 | 0,47 | 0,41 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lizardmen | 15 | 0,47 | 0,38 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chaos Dwarf | 15 | 0,47 | 0,34 | 1 | 0,07 | 1 |
| Wood Elf | 12 | 0,38 | 0,31 | 0 | ||
| Goblin | 12 | 0,38 | 0,25 | 1 | 0,08 | 1 |
| Vampire | 10 | 0,31 | 0,31 | 1 | 0,1 | 1 |
| Chaos Renegade | 9 | 0,28 | 0,28 | 0 | ||
| Chaos Chosen | 9 | 0,28 | 0,25 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nurgle | 7 | 0,22 | 0,16 | 0 | 1 | |
| Old World Alliance | 5 | 0,16 | 0,13 | 0 | ||
| Elven Union | 4 | 0,13 | 0,13 | 1 | 0,25 | |
| High Elf | 4 | 0,13 | 0,09 | 0 |
In the post-star era, the most represented teams, out of 256, were:
| Roster | Teams | Average per Rumble | Representation | Wins | Success Rate | Lost Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 25 | 1,56 | 0,69 | 4 | 0,16 | 5 |
| Tomb Kings | 21 | 1,31 | 0,69 | 3 | 0,14 | |
| Necromantic Horror | 14 | 0,88 | 0,63 | 1 | 0,07 | |
| Skaven | 12 | 0,75 | 0,56 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dwarf | 12 | 0,75 | 0,5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Human | 12 | 0,75 | 0,5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orc | 12 | 0,75 | 0,5 | 2 | 0,17 | 1 |
| Underworld Denizens | 10 | 0,63 | 0,56 | 2 | 0,2 | 2 |
| Chaos Dwarf | 10 | 0,63 | 0,5 | 1 | 0,1 | |
| Dark Elf | 10 | 0,63 | 0,44 | 0 | ||
| Lizardmen | 10 | 0,63 | 0,44 | 0 | ||
| Imperial Nobility | 9 | 0,56 | 0,5 | 0 | ||
| Shambling Undead | 9 | 0,56 | 0,5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Black Orc | 9 | 0,56 | 0,44 | 0 | ||
| High Elf | 9 | 0,56 | 0,44 | 1 | 0,11 | |
| Khorne | 9 | 0,56 | 0,38 | 1 | 0,11 | |
| Norse | 9 | 0,56 | 0,38 | 0 | ||
| Wood Elf | 7 | 0,44 | 0,44 | 0 | ||
| Chaos Renegade | 7 | 0,44 | 0,38 | 0 | ||
| Goblin | 7 | 0,44 | 0,38 | 0 | ||
| Vampire | 7 | 0,44 | 0,38 | 0 | ||
| Chaos Chosen | 6 | 0,38 | 0,31 | 1 | 0,17 | 1 |
| Old World Alliance | 6 | 0,38 | 0,25 | 0 | ||
| Nurgle | 5 | 0,31 | 0,31 | 0 | ||
| Halfling | 3 | 0,19 | 0,19 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ogre | 3 | 0,19 | 0,19 | 0 | ||
| Elven Union | 3 | 0,19 | 0,13 | 0 | ||
| Snotling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The first major shift is the total disappearance of Snotling teams. In fact, eventually just one turned up, in RRR 541, not included in this survey because it's still ongoing. To be fair, the attendance of RRRs 540, 541 and 542 shuffles things around quite a bit, Necromantic drop to 6th, and Orcs and Lizards rise to 4th and 5th. An updated version of this post might be in order, later on.
Comparing attendance, you can see the top 4 teams in the Star Era (Dwarf, Snotling, Orc, Amazon) had the lion's share of the wins (21/32) while the new top 4 (Amazon, Tomb Kings, Necromantic Horror and Skaven) only hog 50% of the wins, with Skaven having the highest number of lost finals after Amazons. You'll get there, rats!
We still have the Amazon problem, but it seems that the other two hard counters to Snotlings have faltered after their disappearance. Orcs are still winning but nowhere near as before, and Dwarves are back to being a griefer team since there's less of their favourite victims around. Where are Chaos Dwarves? Everyone groans when they see that orange icon, but they're not as succesful in the long run, either with or without stars around. In that regard it has to be said that the Star Era of RRRs ended just as Bomber Dribblesnot's reign began, so maybe they never got around to benefiting from the exploit (although some of them tried!).
It kinda feels like a more even playing field now, although I'd like to see at some point a gradual return of stars and what effect it would have on the meta, maybe if/when Mega Stars are frozen out of the [C] division? We shall see.
Lastly, it is the Khemri Edition™ after all!
What else do you notice?
Comments
Posted by Java on 2023-04-20 11:38:45
Last tidbit that I didn't know where to squeeze: the Star Era most varied Rumble had 14 different rosters represented, while the Starless era has a record of 15 (two coaches brought Amazons to that one). Average is around 11 for both.
Posted by MerryZ on 2023-04-20 12:09:57
Makkin Khemri Gret Agin.
Posted by Storr on 2023-04-20 13:14:51
Wasn't that hard
Posted by Storr on 2023-04-20 13:16:02
And I hope stars will never come back to RRR in any form. At least not in this ruleset.
Posted by Java on 2023-04-20 14:27:47
@Storr: that's what she said! ... :(
Seriously though, why do you hate akhorne and Helmut?
Seriously though, why do you hate akhorne and Helmut?
Posted by C0ddlefish on 2023-04-20 15:17:41
Sad to see it's killed off the Stunties. Would a Megastar ban be the right compromise? (probably add Cindy to the Megastar list as it stands)
Posted by RDaneel on 2023-04-20 15:19:39
the Star's ban was one of my main motivations to attend the RRR for the first time.
Posted by The_Murker on 2023-04-20 17:30:11
So, put a different way, banning the stars has actually lowered attendance, as opposed to increasing it?
Unexpected, but I have a hypothesis that could be one possible explanation of that phenomenon. (or PART of the explanation)
Anyone can win if Morg or Bomber has a good day. The more anyone might win, the more people might likely try their hand at winning. Conversly,less stars = less random = more skill = less chance newer coaches have to dominate a game or two, or win.
So lack of stars = less chance of a 'high ranking' coach being beaten by a newer, lower ranking coach. That part is good for the high ranking coaches. But..
There are MORE lower ranked and newer coaches than high ranking coaches. Catering to the higher ranking coach's desires, and their fear of 'star randomness', and losing to lower ranking coaches, comes at the expense of overall RRR games played. So less games played, and tournaments consisting of generally higher ranking coaches taking part.
The games that are being played don't revolve around Morg or Bomber, snotlings, and snotling counters. I suspect this is the way the RRR die-hards want it, but the data shows more games actually get played with the stars.
I get it. Once a coach has had his turn playing Morg, he'd rather not face him as he tries out other teams. Fleeing bombs might get boring for the coaches who RRR often.
But I side with all the coaches of perhaps 'lesser skill' who would like to have their turn with Morg, especially if that results in more RRR's overall. I'd rather RRR's be for everyone, bombs included, rather than RRR's be for the RRR die-hards.
I would feel differently if the game count was higher after the star ban, but it isn't.
Thanks for that data!
Unexpected, but I have a hypothesis that could be one possible explanation of that phenomenon. (or PART of the explanation)
Anyone can win if Morg or Bomber has a good day. The more anyone might win, the more people might likely try their hand at winning. Conversly,less stars = less random = more skill = less chance newer coaches have to dominate a game or two, or win.
So lack of stars = less chance of a 'high ranking' coach being beaten by a newer, lower ranking coach. That part is good for the high ranking coaches. But..
There are MORE lower ranked and newer coaches than high ranking coaches. Catering to the higher ranking coach's desires, and their fear of 'star randomness', and losing to lower ranking coaches, comes at the expense of overall RRR games played. So less games played, and tournaments consisting of generally higher ranking coaches taking part.
The games that are being played don't revolve around Morg or Bomber, snotlings, and snotling counters. I suspect this is the way the RRR die-hards want it, but the data shows more games actually get played with the stars.
I get it. Once a coach has had his turn playing Morg, he'd rather not face him as he tries out other teams. Fleeing bombs might get boring for the coaches who RRR often.
But I side with all the coaches of perhaps 'lesser skill' who would like to have their turn with Morg, especially if that results in more RRR's overall. I'd rather RRR's be for everyone, bombs included, rather than RRR's be for the RRR die-hards.
I would feel differently if the game count was higher after the star ban, but it isn't.
Thanks for that data!
Posted by Dynamix on 2023-04-20 17:55:52
Nice number crunching Java
Are there other factors apart from the Star presence or absence , such as initial excitement trying the new ruleset , holiday season etc.
I entered some RRR during Star Era then stopped because of them , mainly MORGFlem which is broken IMO . As soon as the ban came started up again. On Hiatus again for other reasons
Are there other factors apart from the Star presence or absence , such as initial excitement trying the new ruleset , holiday season etc.
I entered some RRR during Star Era then stopped because of them , mainly MORGFlem which is broken IMO . As soon as the ban came started up again. On Hiatus again for other reasons
Posted by The_Murker on 2023-04-20 18:19:05
Other reasons being, you sub-consciously miss MorgFlem. My guess, anyway. They are so cute together.
Posted by MerryZ on 2023-04-20 18:48:12
There is low brawl now where you can star away if you want to do that.
I like RRRs stars free also, keeps it as its own thing and suits the rookie fluff imo.
I like RRRs stars free also, keeps it as its own thing and suits the rookie fluff imo.
Posted by Java on 2023-04-20 20:55:16
I believe it's more likely that RRRs were the only game in town beyond Gamefinder for a long while, and now we have Majors and the Box again so people have spread out.
Posted by Storr on 2023-04-21 01:53:24
Do you also have numbers on which coaches played most RRR in total, durimg star times and since the star ban? I personally believe that most rdgulars would have stopped at some point if there wasn't a star ban, but that's of course hard to prove.
Posted by Java on 2023-04-21 09:53:47
I don't, sorry. No idea how to harvest that kind of data automatically. Anecdotally I heard quite a few people stopped signing up for RRRs when Morgflem became widespread.
Posted by Rawlf on 2023-04-24 11:09:08
Lovely post, Java, love the number crunching!
The problem with numbers is that taking them as they are can be very misleading.
Banning the stars did NOT reduce the number of RRRs per month from 3 to 2. Before the ban, we had 1 RRR in Aug, 1 in Jul, 2 in Jun, 1 in May etc. After the ban, we also had 1 RRR per month for a while, but now in 2023 we average 3 per month. So despite a growing number of alternative challenges (BBT, majors, Brawls etc), RRRs are as popular as ever atm, and certainly more so than before the ban.
I also dont buy the more stars = more randomness statement. It is clearly true for Bomber. It certainly isn't true for Griff or Hakflem, who give their teams reliability they could never have through roster items. Morg is kind of half-half. His removals may work or not, but his ST6 block is always there. Biggest randomness comes from wizards, who are still allowed, but are mostly unpopular.
I would also want to mention that weak coaches rarely brought star builds in the first place, it was almost always strong coaches. They also rarely bring wizards.
I would agree that randomness helps weak coaches vs. strong ones, but unfortunately you have to be a strong coach to understand how and why.
Personally, I was afraid that banning all stars would result in an even bigger swing towards the powerhouse rosters like Amazon, Orc, Dwarf, DE etc. A lot of the roster spread seems to be down to the preferences of the RRR heavy users - like Tomb Kings, who are apperantly quite fashionable.
The problem with numbers is that taking them as they are can be very misleading.
Banning the stars did NOT reduce the number of RRRs per month from 3 to 2. Before the ban, we had 1 RRR in Aug, 1 in Jul, 2 in Jun, 1 in May etc. After the ban, we also had 1 RRR per month for a while, but now in 2023 we average 3 per month. So despite a growing number of alternative challenges (BBT, majors, Brawls etc), RRRs are as popular as ever atm, and certainly more so than before the ban.
I also dont buy the more stars = more randomness statement. It is clearly true for Bomber. It certainly isn't true for Griff or Hakflem, who give their teams reliability they could never have through roster items. Morg is kind of half-half. His removals may work or not, but his ST6 block is always there. Biggest randomness comes from wizards, who are still allowed, but are mostly unpopular.
I would also want to mention that weak coaches rarely brought star builds in the first place, it was almost always strong coaches. They also rarely bring wizards.
I would agree that randomness helps weak coaches vs. strong ones, but unfortunately you have to be a strong coach to understand how and why.
Personally, I was afraid that banning all stars would result in an even bigger swing towards the powerhouse rosters like Amazon, Orc, Dwarf, DE etc. A lot of the roster spread seems to be down to the preferences of the RRR heavy users - like Tomb Kings, who are apperantly quite fashionable.