Content:
I. Intro
II. WOW
III. Card Games
IV. Magic – The Gathering
V. Poker
VI. Chess
VII. Bloodbowl
VIII. Postword
IX. Backgammon Postword

I. Intro
It’s common knowledge that Bloodbowl is about probabilities. But lately I have come to notice that when I mention that, I get the answer: most games are. That’s very wrong. Most games have to do with probabilities, but they aren’t ABOUT them.
The following is an attempt to explain -mainly to newbies- how much different this game is and how you can advance, if you get rid of your misbelieve and give yourself to Nuffle.
The games used are mere random examples and an understanding of them is not necessary.

II. WOW (World of Warcraft)
WOW has a similar character-based value development with different parts to choose.
Most likely you will find somewhere in the Internet all the chances listed that come with different development trees, which tell you exactly what has the best chance to make the most damage per second. Choosing that tree is a no brainer. It doesn’t even effort that you understand anything about chances, just that you can browse the internet. You can go for power-gaming and take the best of the best, or you try to bash your way through, using something that you might call a fun based idea. Let’s override the term “powergaming” and use for it the made description.

Powergaming is something that exists in Bloodbowl too. It’s equally present. Let’s just say at this point, that the fact that powergaming exists, doesn’t make a game ABOUT probabilities. To know what is the best choice, certainly shows that you have spend time, working with the game and tried to improve. However, Powergaming neither proofs that you are good in the understanding of a game-dynamic nor that you are good in probabilities. It just shows that you like to win. That’s ok but that isn’t even 15% about what Bloodbowl is about.

III. Card Games
Card games have the ability to be more about chances then dice games, because the outcome of every round is based on the outcome of the prior round. A vast understanding of chances can proof here very useful. However in the context chances are important is mainly due to the ability to remember cards. So you could better say, card games are about the ability to remember stuff with a probability component..

IV. Magic – The Gathering
What makes MTG special is, that people mainly use different decks to play with. The real challenge of the game is not just to win it, but to design a deck out of thousands of different cards, that is capable to compete in a reasonable way against every other deck. If a deck is successful and wins tournaments people will try to copy it, using one of two different cards and a new deck-type is created. They commonly get names after a while like: “Fishdeck” , “Elfdeck”, “Dread Return” or “Counterdeck “, telling the insider what combination of cards he can expect next. Of course, there will be mostly only one or two deck-types that really have the best overall chances to win. Still, most people won’t use them neither will they use just random cards. It’s much more likely they will base their deck around an idea they like on the one hand but that on the other hand has still reasonable chances to win. In that deck-types resemble races in Bloodbowl very much. Giving a diversity, even tho’ the coach always knows that he might not have chosen the most competitive race, he might still stick with it. Bloodbowl however is too balanced as if you really could choose a “wrong” race. Every race can win. You can technically even base every race just around linemen and it still will work. Yes, Bloodbowl is THAT balanced actually. However if you try hard enough, create a pure Thrall team and always take Pass Block as first skill you might find yourself still at a dead end.
Let’s call that aspect game “Design”. Now I think I have made my point clear that a game having a Design doesn’t make it about chances. So Bloodbowl isn’t ABOUT chances because it has a Design aswell.
The other aspect about magic is diversity. Most decks in Magic will try to handle the opponents deck somehow. The problem here is, that particular cards give only answers against particular threats like “Creatures” or “Enchantments” or “Red Spells” or whatever. In that respect it is similar to skills like “Tackle” in Bloodbowl. Personally I hate tackle, because its mere nature makes it impossible to create balance. It’s basically an unbalancer that can only justify itself on a larger scale. That this doesn’t work on places like R really well, we see from the example of Amazons, the statistical champions among the ranking rookie teams. However in Magic every skill is pretty much like “Tackle”. Because of that, it’s reasonable to choose cards against types of decks you think it is likely that you are going to play against them. Being able to handle that aspect of a game will also significantly improve your chances to win. A good cherrypicker is never going to just play TS down, instead he will be very much aware of his personal strengths and weaknesses and base his decision to play against someone around it.
Let’s call this aspect of the game “Diversity”. To have a good empathy of the Diversity in a game you don’t need just to understand chances, let’s say this part of the game is a highly skilled one and it contains the ability to know the enemy. Yeah, that’s right. Advanced Cherrypicking needs reasonable skill. A good coach should be able to at least understand it.

V. Poker
Most people will say: Isn’t Poker about chances? Honestly? Of course. Actually, to just understand your chances is basically necessary to really start playing. If you don’t know the odds that your set of cards is better then the set of your opponents could be, you are lost to begin with. The thing is you are limited to the odds of 5 cards out of 7 in any case. The tricky part is now to attain the correct amount of money to these chances. Who bets with the odds will eventually win. But that’s where you are wrong about in Poker. Of course there are hundreds of people out there you could beat like that but lets be serious here. Its their lack of understanding that makes you win there. However, the moment you advance to a group that knows, what they are doing, assuming you always take the best chance, you will be like a glasshouse. They will be able to tell what you have from your bets and eventually beat you. So truth. You know the chances. What the game really is about once you handle them is bluffing.

VI. Chess
Bluffing ain’t part of Bloodbowl. Bloodbowl is always like a glasshouse. That’s why it resembles chess on the hand and poker on the other. Poker would be lame if you would play with open hands. Bloodbowl/Chess would be lame if you played with hidden ones. You and your opponent are supposed to have the exact same amount of data. Things might not go the way you have planned them, but that’s mainly because you didn’t plan it. Maybe your opponent has planned ahead for the possibility that you might loose the ball and suffer a turnover while you didn’t. Chess has a rather limited amount of possible outcomes, that a sole brain can possibly all can think trough, allowing computers to get really really good at it. It might take a little while but believing in chances always pays off on the long run.
Bloodbowl has to consider thousands of different variables, resulting from every single player and how he ends his moves. The row you move them and when the impact of the turnover is going to strike you. It gets more complicated when you calculate the odds for the reroll in. You now have to apply the possibilities for what you do before the reroll, after the reroll, up to wich point you will even use it, wich consequences this will have for your next turns, and of course the chance of a failed reroll.

VII. Bloodbowl
The problem is: In any other game you would say. Ah look here: Low risk, medium benefit, I take the chance. In Bloodbowl you know: No matter how low the risk is, a failure means the end of the world. Yes, a turnover IS the end. Let’s face it. If you are new to this game you maybe think: Turnover will happen. It can’t be helped. Of course there will be lots and lots of turnovers. Often it doesn’t even matter. But a good coach hasn’t turnovers every turn. Not even every second turn. If a good coach suffers a turnover he mostly has created a situation where he can handle the impact in advance.
What I’m trying to say is: You must choose your actions as wisely as you can. An unnecessary GFI means the end. A wrongly careful play that doesn’t take that badly needed last GFI might mean it as well. It’s all about chances. It really is. It’s the basic, the advance and the professionality in this game. Bloodbowl is ABOUT it, about nothing else. It’s the whole beauty of the game.

VIII. Postword
Powergaming, Diversity, Design other games are about that. All this has its own components of odds. If you are going to ignore it all, you will lose, as well. Squeezing the best chances out of everything doesn’t end when the ref blows the whistle. Get a concept that’s based on chances and stick to it. You can be proud of yourself when you win. Even if you played Orks. …Just if you played Dwarves or Khemri you are a moron.

IX. Backgammon Postword

It's undeniable that Blackgammon is about chances. It's pretty much the same type of 2D-odds rolls, you can calculate for just one action or for a long streak and look and see what is the best you are going to get out of it.
The probability of actions is not just a streak of rolls. It's the way that you look at these little squares you have ahead of you. It's the way that you know this movement 7 guy can make a TD being 4 squares in the opponents half and at the same time support your defense 5 squares down. Because you went NOT for the possibility that maybe some lucky opponent throw succeeds or fails, but for both.
You don't care if you are getting lucky or not because you are prepared in the best possible way for every event, no matter what happens .And you don't just move your players around. You take the time to think about what you are doing and you might realize if I had put this one guy one more square to the left, my opponent would have needed to roll that one single additional 2+ that could have made the difference and you didn't... and then next game you put that player one more square to the left and your oppoennt pushes that guy close the sideline and you learn... yes, he has to do this 2+ but he forces me to do a risky dodge in the next turn, or to loose my player... and then you say... I give a damn about that one possible streak of chances...It's not just the next move, the next TD, the entire game.
And Nuffle knows, that's not something you can calculate... that's not something you can write into a computer and he will hand you out a freakking result... It's something you get only trough the advanced perspective you're getting from having a real human brain... but what your brain needs to handle right here... are the probabiities.. it needs to understand the likleyness of every single part of the game no matter how small or unimportant it is... it's so brilliant because it really is a calculation... just a really really big complex one.. because everything comes back at you like a deadly fire... and you can do that not with a freakking calculator... you do that with your freakking mind.