There are coaches, that just rush forward, not thinking much about the odds and there are those that calculate everything through. Well, at least those are the extremes.
I try to stay somewhere in the middle. It's become easier, since I developed some intuition concerning probabilities with common dice rolls.

Yesterday I wanted to block free a path with my troll slayer, but had to cancel my opponents assists on him. I had two options: Either move a longbeard his regular four squares, or go for it one square and add an assist to the slayer's second block in case of a push. It was quite obvious that the odds on the longbeard failing the GFI (it was a BB7s match, so no team RRs there) where far higher than on the slayer rolling only skulls on either the first or the second block - especially since he also has the pro skill.
On the other hand there was a gut feeling that told me to be careful. I considered my options and chose probabilities above guts - and failed. My slayer did a push on the first block and a skull at the second, pro failed. Turnover, chance to score gone.

This morning I calculated the odds while doing my laundry. Chances to fail GFI: 1/6 (obvious)
Chances to fail with the slayer: about 1/144

Gut feeling or probabilities, that is the question.


Edit:
Right after I posted the text above and left the house, I realized I had totally screwed up the maths. :-D

For those who are interested, the odds on
...turnover without assist on 2nd block: 2,10 %
...turnover with assist on 2nd block: 0,35 %
...turnover on gfi: 16,67 %

So the assist would have helped a lot in this special situation, but the odds on a turnover in general would have been way higher!

2nd edit:
After some more calculations (see comments), the crucial number is 15,05 % - that's how much the gfi would have increased the odds on a turnover. :-)