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keggiemckill
Last seen 5 days ago
keggiemckill (17190)
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2012

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2014-05-15 18:27:13
6 votes, rating 3.2
To Tie to Win, or To Tie to tie
I was curious about people's perception for "playing of a tie." For myself a tie always feels worse than a loss. I just had my 300th Fumbbl tie. With 627 Wins and 684 Losses I think having 300 Ties is quite low compared to other coaches. I also think a lot of my losses come from not playing for a tie. Scoring early in the second half hoping to steal the ball and win the game is a frequent dilemma for me. It is Not a hard choice, but much of a dilemma in retrospect. I would much rather have a loss, trying for a win, rather than staying put for an even score. I am not Min/Max'er, I rarely worry about my teams TV. I play with what I have and then try my utmost to win the game. I always try to win the game.

Now I know people skewer every detail of a blog so I should mention this; A tie, coming behind in a game and equalizing the score is probably sits around the 90% range out of the 300 of my ties. My intentions is to never sit and stall in the second half if the game is now Tied. This has brought me to recent conclusion. After 1611 games on Fumbbl, I'm probably more of an Elfy type coach than I rather like to admit. I normally play Bashy teams. But coming from behind, or scoring early in the second half (tying the game at the point) isn't cut out for slow Orc or Nurgle teams. I've played a lot of Lizards and Slann as of late and my style is better suited for faster paced teams. I have been and I will start pursuing the fine Art of Elf-Ball. At this point I do not know how to do this. I am very experienced with losing to Elves, so mimicking those losses probably will be the best way to actually start.

The questions is whether I try it in the Box or in Ranked. My time zone as of late has very little amount of coaches actively playing games. Since the Box changes, which I am absolutely for, many Aussie Min Maxers have stopped showing up to play. So having 25-35 coaches on line at one time is very frequent now a days. I saw 1 game being played last night at one point. That's 9pm my Pacific time. So I am probably going to keep pursuing Ranked Elves. Unfortunately that may turn me into a filthy picker at times. For this I apologize in advance. The one thing I will do is to avoid any coach under Star. I will only be picking teams, and I will pursue coaches and teams with my Elves that are also looking to Ball it out. I might as well learn from the better coaches on how to play that style of game. Losing is always a better way of learning how to win.

Going back to original question, am I kidding myself with the tie to win idea for Elves? Maybe I will learn to be a safer coach with more fragile players. Time will tell I am guessing. I just bought a 2nd Edition High elf team for my Table Top league next Season.
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Comments
Posted by regn on 2014-05-15 18:55:29
Playing to tie is terrible. Anyone who's so invested in their pixelmans' w/l/d record to stall out several turns instead of going for two touchdowns eed to man (or woman) up.
Posted by koadah on 2014-05-15 19:08:01
Not quite sure what the question is.

Even so. The obvious answer is "it depends".
Posted by Overhamsteren on 2014-05-15 19:11:47
In my experience, unless I have a huge man advantage, then scoring instead of stalling results in a loss far more often than a victory. So I play for the tie when it gives me the best chance for a result.

Now of course against certain opponents I don't stall because I know they wont stall against me and I admit that not stalling can be more fun. And against gobs, halflings and ogres I don't stall either, just out of principle.

Now for the stats :D

keggiemckill Draws: 18.6%
Overhamsteren Draws: 21.8%
Posted by Endzone on 2014-05-15 19:19:06

1. If P(win) > P(loss), then play to win
2. If P(win) < P(loss), then play to draw
3. If P(win or draw) = 0, then play for min. loss
4. If P(win) = 1, then play for max. win

...but define 'win', 'draw' and 'loss' as you will.
Posted by mrt1212 on 2014-05-15 19:20:39
I only hate ties if I haven't had fun during the game. If I tie because I played too aggressively or not aggressively enough thems the breaks and I can attempt to rectify it next time.

Also, I'm in the same time zone as you and want to play exclusively in Box if I can. I feel you! I want to form a meta group for coaches that play between 02:00 and 08:00 server time that has a money incentive behind it (out of my own pocket. It's time to put money where my mouth is). I can't guarantee that I'll be activating every night obviously, but I usually am on Sundays, Tuesdays, Thursdays, Fridays for a few hours to putz around with fumbbl. If we at least have an awareness of who is on during those hours and who wants to play we can beat the war drums to activate.

Drop me a PM, or I'll include you on one I have open to Koadah about this idea.
Posted by Azure on 2014-05-15 19:29:53
I dislike draws. Always go for win. Of my games: 13.9% have been draws.
Posted by Hitonagashi on 2014-05-15 20:02:23
I sometimes play for the tie if I think the chance of getting a win is miniscule. An example being - skaven score fast in turn 2 of second half. Score is 2-1 to them and they have a benched 1 turner/ag 5 leaping blodging freak. (or wood elves with their WD safe, you get the picture).

Some good defense means that despite my best efforts, I can't punch through till turn 6. In that case, I'll usually stall out the half and take a 2-2, rather than attempt to turn over and score against a fast scoring team with 2 turns remaining. Obviously, in a major I'd go for it, but in a standard ranked game, I'd stall out the half and take a draw.
Posted by Roland on 2014-05-15 20:02:41
A tie is half a win.
Posted by koadah on 2014-05-15 20:58:05
Often it is only a third of a win. ;)
Posted by Stimme on 2014-05-15 21:54:29
I love draws. 23% of my games have been ties! A large chunk of them with goblins, so technically they count as wins.
Posted by pythrr on 2014-05-16 01:19:57
what the hell is P?
Posted by ahalfling on 2014-05-16 02:00:38
16.4% ties for me. I really don't stall much at all, do I?
Posted by keggiemckill on 2014-05-16 02:46:06
A P is the.... I have no comical retort and actually would like to know as well.
Posted by xnoelx on 2014-05-16 02:57:30
P(some event) is the probability of the event happening.
Posted by Beerox on 2014-05-16 07:10:56
I am drawmeister.

Khemri are exempt from the discussion of ties.
If the other team scores T8, and you receive 0-1 2nd half, you are basically playing for the draw unless the opposing cas box is overflowing. MA6 AG2 limits your options massively.
Posted by Roland on 2014-05-16 10:09:00
@koadah: it counts as half in win % ;)

@pythrr: P = probability

*flies away*
Posted by keggiemckill on 2014-05-16 15:29:39
@Beerox I can understand that. I think that is why I am not truly a grind coach. In retrospect I think I should have been more clear and specifically asked people who is quickly ready to settle for a Tie. I think everyone intends to win. A lot of Coaches are ready to settle quicker than I. Even on a turn 6 TD, I rarely will stall it out for 2 turns, and then give the opposition an unwarranted chance at winning. The P(Keggie keeping a game a tie)< P(Keggie Losing rather than defensively winning)
Posted by MattDakka on 2014-05-16 19:25:11
If I must absolutely win to qualify for something when playing in a league or tournament then I try to win at all costs even though it's risky because the final goal overrides the usual caution in this situation;
if trying to win a close match outside any tournament/competition might result in a loss then I usually follow the conservative approach and go for the tie, if the tie is clearly impossible then I try to minimize the loss and earn some SPPs if I can.